NBA Free Premium Play 01/05


NBA FREE Premium Pick: 809 Chicago Bulls @ 810 Dallas Mavericks
Rating: 4 units - Regular Play
Pick: Under 211 (Play up to 209)
Odds: -110 / 1.91 on Sportsbook OR -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Dallas's offense continues to be very perimeter based, with a fairly low number of shots near the basket. They shoot a lot from the outside and are an elite spot up team, while their transition and pick n roll ball handler plays are fairly unimpressive. They'll face a Chicago defense that is great in defensive rebounding, but terrible at forcing turnovers. The Bulls' rim protection has gone back to poor with Mirotic back, but that won't be explored on this matchup. Their terrible transition defense won't also be explored by the Mavs. Given that the Bulls' defense is decent on spot ups, I can expect Chicago's defense to have a good performance tonight, as Dallas' offense won't explore their weakest links.

On the other hand, the Bulls' offense has obviously a frontcourt with a lot of outside shooting skills with Mirotic, Markkanen and even Portis. Their pick n roll ball handler plays have also improved because of Dunn, but their offense near the basket continues to be fairly poor. Just like the Bulls, Dallas is also a very good defensive rebounding team and while they try to avoid shots near the rim as much as possible, their spot up defense is fairly good and should be able to limit Chicago's offense tonight. I see this matchup being favorable to both defenses and so, I'll be taking the Under in here.

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