NBA Free Premium Play 11/10

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  • Date Monday, 10 November 2014
  • Write up
    Utah is coming from a nice win yesterday, but four of their starters played over 30 minutes. Therefore, they'll be in a bad spot tonight against the Pacers that are a tough match up for them. Utah's offense needs their rim offense to work efficiently, as they are #2 in the league in FG% in that area! However, with Roy Hibbert protecting the rim, Utah's offense will struggle in here. Hibbert actually injured his knee on Indiana's last game and that's why Washington was able to pound the Pacers down low, but with Hibbert back tonight, Utah won't be as lucky.
     
    On the other hand, Indiana's offense is just outright bad right now with just 16.3 assists per game on their last four outings, the result of really poor ball movement. Utah's defense shouldn't have issues with Indiana's offense today. Therefore, I expect a low scoring game tonight and so, I'll take the Under in here.

NBA Free Premium Play 11/09

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  • Date Sunday, 09 November 2014
  • Write up
    Orlando is coming from two wins in a row, but beating Philadelphia and Minnesota without Rubio isn't exactly super impressive. Their offense continues to be very inconsistent, with a lot of turnovers and streaky outside shooting. They attack the rim a lot, but Brooklyn's rim defense is slowly getting better and they're now #10 in the league on rim defense with 57% FG allowed, even though they've already faced Minnesota, Oklahoma City and Detroit this season.
     
    I believe coach Hollins might use the same style in here that he implemented in Memphis, in order to stop Orlando today. With the Magic's offense controlled, then Brooklyn's edges on offense and in bench quality will turn this game into a blowout. The match ups between Deron vs Payton and Johnson vs Fournier will give a tremendous physical edge to the Nets in here. Orlando's defense on their last two games looked decent, but their opponents shot a combined of 12-43 (27%) 3pts mostly thanks to their poor outside shooting skills. However, Brooklyn's perimeter is a lot better than Minnesota and Philadelphia, so I believe the Nets will comfortably get a double digits win in here. Even in case of an early blowout game, I don't see Orlando coming back to the game, as Brooklyn has a superior bench as well. Therefore, I'll take the Nets today on this early game.

NBA Free Premium Play 11/08

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  • Date Saturday, 08 November 2014
  • Write up
    This is a match up that generated a lot of points last season in the matches between these two teams and I expect the same to happen in here. The Clippers' offense is still a bit far from its best, as they're struggling on their outside shooting. However, they have been creating a lot of good looks (more uncontested shots than contested in four of their first five games of the season) and eventually, like it happened with Portland on this early season, these shots will eventually start going in as the Clippers have good outside shooters on their roster.
     
    The Clippers will also explore Lillard's poor defense and attack the rim as much as possible. Portland got outmuscled by Sacramento, in a game where the Kings had an offensive rating of 116.12! The Blazers are coming from three consecutive good defensive games (all at home) against Golden State, Cleveland and Dallas. However, the Cavs' ball movement has been terrible so far in this season, while the Warriors and Dallas are jump shooting teams, with the Blazers' defensive main strength being preventing treys and so, Golden State and Dallas shot a combined of 11-41 3pts! On the other hand, the Clippers have a lot more ability in pounding down low than these two teams and they'll expose Portland's interior defense issues today.
     
    On the other hand, the Clippers' perimeter defense hasn't been great lately by allowing 10-27 and 15-25 3pts on their last two games. Portland is a great perimeter shooting team and they will expose that very well today, especially when they are coming so confident for today's game after two good wins in a row against Cleveland and Dallas. I expect this game to be a high scoring contest and therefore, I'll take the Over in here.

NBA Free Premium Play 11/07

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  • Date Friday, 07 November 2014
  • Write up
    Brooklyn is coming from a loss against Minnesota, where Brook struggled against Pekovic near the rim. Things will be different tonight, where I believe Brook has a great match up to bounce back against the Knicks' weak frontcourt. On the other hand, with both Calderon and Prigioni injured, Brooklyn will have a huge edge with Deron and Jack over Larkin, who will be the Knicks' only pure available PG for tonight. The Nets struggled against Minnesota on rebounding, but that won't be an issue against the Knicks.
     
    The Knicks almost made a comeback at Detroit on their last game, but that was more demerit of Detroit's terrible floor spacing and offensive flow than the Knicks' merit. Brooklyn is a lot more mature team than the Knicks right now, especially on offense, where the Knicks continues having a lot of growing pains. Therefore, I expect a comfortable win by Brooklyn tonight and so, I'll take them in here.

NBA Free Premium Play 11/05

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  • Date Wednesday, 05 November 2014
  • Write up

    Detailed write up to be added soon

NBA Free Premium Play 11/04

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  • Date Tuesday, 04 November 2014
  • Write up
    Oklahoma City is on a bad physical spot tonight, with a bunch of injured players and without Durant and Westbrook, they naturally lack a scoring punch. The Thunder dished 14 assists against a Nets defense that isn't an elite defense and I guess this says it all. So, the key in here will be to understand the match up between Toronto's offense and Oklahoma City's defense. The game yesterday between Brooklyn and Oklahoma City went over the total posted because Brooklyn had an offensive explosion due to a great outside shooting night. However, that's unlikely to happen tonight because Toronto's offense is struggling at the moment with poor ball movement, with just 13 and 11 assists on their last two games. 
     
    The Raptors have been able to score via free throws and offensive rebounds. However, if there is something with quality that Oklahoma City still has, that's their frontcourt with Ibaka, Adams and Perkins. Therefore, I expect the Thunder to have a solid interior defense game, while the Raptors' perimeter game won't be at all as explosive as Brooklyn was last night. I see this game being a low scoring affair and so, I'll take the Under in here.

NBA Free Premium Play 11/03

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  • Date Monday, 03 November 2014
  • Write up
    I believe Boston has the right ingredients to cause problems to Dallas at the start of the game. Dallas is coming from a game against New Orleans's poor perimeter defense and they will now face a team that has a quite aggressive perimeter defense. If there is a problem with the Mavs is the fact that they are quite soft and the fired up Celtics, after a humiliating defeated at Houston should take advantage of that to catch Dallas by surprise tonight.
     
    Dallas's perimeter game has been excellent, but I must say that they also faced some favorable match ups like Utah and New Orleans. Now against the much more aggressive Celtics, I expect Boston to have a good start of the game. I know that they didn't show that aggression on their game at Houston, but this is exactly why they will come fired up for tonight. Boston scored 62 and 60 points in the paint on their first two games of the season and in tonight's contest, only Chandler might offer some resistance near the basket. I believe the Celtics will play a very good first half tonight and so, I'll take them in here on a FIRST HALF bet!

NBA Free Premium Play 11/02

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  • Date Sunday, 02 November 2014
  • Write up
    The Clippers aren't sharp enough at the moment to have this kind of line against the Kings. That's noticeable to me since their preseason game against Utah, where I took the Clippers -5 and it was a push. They played for real in that game, with the starters playing over 30 minutes and so full of intensity that Blake got into a fight with Booker! However, they still struggled to beat the lowly Jazz. Their outside shooting is off sync, their SF position is being a black hole and their bench is also lacking options besides Crawford and Hawes. I've also noted their lack of in-game consistency. That was visible against the Thunder, where they almost had a double digits lead without Westbrook on court, but they still allowed Oklahoma City to comeback to the game.
     
    On the other hand, I like Sacramento's defense against Golden State. Of course their offense struggled in that game, but their defense was really good, as they stopped a great Warriors offense that put 127 points on the Lakers last night! Then, on their game against Portland, the Kings did another good defensive performance, once again against a good offensive team like the Blazers. After limiting Curry, then also limited Lillard very well! However, what impressed me the most in Sacramento so far in this season is their rebounding edge, as they grabbed 56% of the boards in both games, an area where the Clippers are struggling.
     
    We have two important edges for the Kings in here: rebounding and good defense. This is exactly what we want on a +10 points underdog. Besides that, Rudy Gay is on fire right now and the Clippers is struggling a lot at the SF position at the moment. This is a great spot and match up to take the double digits underdog and this is exactly what I'm doing in here. Take Sacramento today!

NBA Free Premium Play 11/01

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  • Date Saturday, 01 November 2014
  • Write up
    It's known that I love Golden State this season and this is why I made a fun bet on the Over on their regular season total wins. I also took them on their first game of the season at Sacramento, where the Warriors showed some super great defense once again. Their margin of victory wasn't bigger because they somehow missed a lot of good looks on offense, especially in the first half where they couldn't score from the outside. However, as soon as their treys started to hit in the second half, they easily beat the Kings.
     
    Now tonight against a tired Lakers team, playing their fourth game in five nights, while being also in a back to back spot, this should be an easy game for Golden State, even without Lee, who will be out tonight. Kobe, Lin and Hill all played over 34 minutes last night and with the Warriors creating open looks against the Lakers' poor and tired defense, this should be a complete blowout game. Therefore, I'll be taking the Warriors tonight.

NBA Free Premium Play 10/31

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  • Date Friday, 31 October 2014
  • Write up
    Indiana beat Philadelphia on their first game, but just the fact that they were once down by double digits points against the lowly Sixers is immediately a warning sign. The Pacers struggled in stopping Philadelphia's transition game, who also easily penetrated into the basket. Of course Philadelphia lacks individual talent and so, they missed a lot, however it was still worrying how the Sixers scored against them. Indiana was benefited from the fact that Philadelphia's frontcourt got into early foul trouble and their second unit was easily outmatched by the Pacers. On the second half, the Pacers also adjusted and clogged the paint, with good games from Sloan and Stuckey. 
     
    The problem for the Pacers tonight is that they won't be facing a poor defensive team like the Sixers. It will be a lot harder for Hibbert to score against Gasol, Sloan to score against Conley and Stuckey to score against Allen. Therefore, I expect a clear regression of Indiana's offense. Regarding the match up between the Grizzlies' offense and the Pacers' defense, Indiana just can't match their defensive level from last season at the moment. If Hibbert will indeed manage to limit Gasol, Randolph will have a total mismatch over Scola. The Pacers' perimeter defense is also very far from last year's level right now and Memphis showed a good offensive performance on their season opener, something that I expect to show once again tonight. I see Memphis getting an easy win tonight and so, I'll take them in here.
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