Track Picks

Track Picks

11/07 Tracking NBA Play #1

Additional Info

  • Date Friday, 07 November 2014
  • Sport NBA
  • Road Team Atlanta Hawks
  • Home Team Charlotte Hornets
  • Rating 4* Regular Play
  • Selection Atlanta +1
  • Sportsbook Pinnacle Sports
  • Line -103 / 1.97
  • Alternative Book Bookmaker
  • Line -110 / 1.91
  • Write up
    We have been taking Atlanta in all their games this year and we finally won a play on their last game at San Antonio, where after a bad start, the Hawks were fairly competitive. I believe that the Bobcats are a good match up for them, especially with Millsap's and Horford's ability to knock down mid-range jumpers, removing Big Al for his comfort zone. Atlanta has a well oiled offense, but they had a few problems against San Antonio with just 8-25 3pts. However, Charlotte's perimeter defense isn't that good, especially with Kemba, Lance and Henderson playing together in the backcourt. Therefore, I expect a clear offensive bounce back from the Hawks tonight.
     
    On the other hand, Charlotte will also make some damage on offense via offensive rebounding, Atlanta's biggest weakness on defense. Big Al will also make his presence left down low, allowing the Hornets to have a decent offensive game tonight. I also expect this game to be played on a relatively fast tempo, with offenses outplaying defenses. As Charlotte is still looking for their best possible chemistry, I give Atlanta the edge tonight. Therefore, I'll take both the Hawks and the Over in here.
  • Score 122-199
  • W/L LOSS
  • Profit -3.09

11/05 Tracking NBA Play #8

Additional Info

  • Date Wednesday, 05 November 2014
  • Sport NBA
  • Road Team Memphis Grizzlies
  • Home Team Phoenix Suns
  • Rating 4* Regular Play
  • Selection Over 192
  • Sportsbook Pinnacle Sports
  • Line -103 / 1.97
  • Alternative Book Bookmaker
  • Line -110 / 1.91
  • Write up
    Memphis has actually been playing at a relatively fast pace against teams that want to push the pace like Minnesota and New Orleans. The same will surely happen tonight as well, as Phoenix has an undersized frontcourt and they could never handle Gasol and Randolph in a slow paced game.
     
    The Grizzlies are coming from a win over New Orleans because the Pelicans shot 4-24 3pts, while Memphis limited their opponent's inside game. This won't happen tonight, as Phoenix is a lot more dangerous on outside shooting than New Orleans. On the other hand, Memphis with Gasol at his best already will cause a huge problem to Phoenix's undersized interior defense. Phoenix allowed 66 points in the paint to Utah and 42 points to the LA Lakers last night. Something similar or even worse should happen with the Grizzlies tonight. Therefore, I see this game being a high scoring game and so, I'll take the Over in here.
  • Score 91-102 (193)
  • W/L WIN
  • Profit +3.00

11/05 Tracking NBA Play #7

Additional Info

  • Date Wednesday, 05 November 2014
  • Sport NBA
  • Road Team Atlanta Hawks
  • Home Team San Antonio Spurs
  • Rating 4* Regular Play
  • Selection Atlanta +8
  • Sportsbook Pinnacle Sports
  • Line -110 / 1.91
  • Alternative Book Bookmaker
  • Line -110 / 1.91
  • Write up
    I am going to fade the reigning champions once again. Even though Splitter will make his season debut tonight, I believe that he will still be a bit off sync, just like Leonard was on his season debut in the team's last game at Phoenix.
     
    On the other hand, Atlanta's offense has been unbelievable for now, with their sole problem being rebounding, especially their defensive rebounding that has been weak by allowing 16 and 11 offensive rebounds to their opponents on their last two games. However, San Antonio isn't by nature a great offensive rebound team, as their main concern is to run back to defense to prevent fast break points from their opponents. I believe this will be a close game and so, I'll take the Hawks in here.
  • Score 94-92
  • W/L WIN
  • Profit +3.00

11/05 Tracking NBA Play #6

Additional Info

  • Date Wednesday, 05 November 2014
  • Sport NBA
  • Road Team New York Knicks
  • Home Team Detroit Pistons
  • Rating 4* Regular Play
  • Selection Detroit -4
  • Sportsbook Pinnacle Sports
  • Line -101 / 1.99
  • Alternative Book Bookmaker
  • Line -110 / 1.91
  • Write up
    I believe this is a great opportunity for Detroit to get their first win of the season and in a comfortable style. The main reason for that will be the match up between these two teams' frontcourts. Detroit with Drummond, Josh and Monroe will absolutely pound the Knicks' poor interior defense that is currently the third worst team in the league in FG% allowed at the rim with 65.6% FG. This is exactly where Detroit's offense normally likes to pound the ball, so the Knicks' defense will have a very tough time tonight, especially because Amare will also have huge problems in trying to stop on defense both Monroe and Smith.
     
    On the other hand, with J.R. Smith suspended for tonight's game, Carmelo will have an even more important role in the Knicks' offense and he won't have an easy match up on offense tonight, as Josh Smith will be all over him the whole game. I see Detroit having a clear match up edge for tonight and also a physical edge, as the NY team playing against Washington last night, while Detroit had three days to rest and to prepare tonight's contest. I believe this will be an easy for the Pistons and so, I'll take them in here.
  • Score 98-95
  • W/L LOSS
  • Profit -3.03

11/05 Tracking NBA Play #5

Additional Info

  • Date Wednesday, 05 November 2014
  • Sport NBA
  • Road Team Toronto Raptors
  • Home Team Boston Celtics
  • Rating 4* Regular Play
  • Selection Under 204
  • Sportsbook Pinnacle Sports
  • Line -105 / 1.95
  • Alternative Book 5 Dimes
  • Line -110 / 1.91
  • Write up
    Toronto is coming from a win at home against the Thunder last night, but they continue with the same issues: they continue to struggle in shooting the basket, but their ball movement actually improved a bit with 23 assists, but it's still quite poor. However, once again, Toronto had an edge on rebounding with 12 offensive rebounds and a lot of free throws attempts with 28-33 FT! The Raptors have now attempted 33, 48, 39 and 33 free throws on their last four games, however they have a problem for tonight. They will be in a terrible spot tonight by playing their fourth game in five nights, while this being also a back to back spot. In such spot, I don't think the Raptors will lack the energy to be ultra aggressive tonight to get all those free throw attempts.
     
    This is especially true because the Raptors will be without their two frontcourt players for tonight. Their defense will be fine with Hansbrough, Hayes and Stiemsma, but their offense will struggle a lot due to lack of scoring punch. This will put a lot of pressure on their backcourt to be efficient tonight and on a tough physical spot, this doesn't bode well for Toronto's offense. This will be excellent news for Boston's defense that won't finally face an elite offense like they did against Houston and Dallas on their last two games. 
     
    Boston's offense has been great at attacking the rim and they are #2 in the league in FG attempts at the rim and with the Raptors missing Amir and Valanciunas, this bodes very well for the Celtics. The home team will also have a clear physical edge for tonight, with the Celtics' backcourt defense having the right amount of quality to defend Lowry and DeRozan. I see the Celtics picking up a nice home win tonight on a relatively low scoring affair and so, I'll take both the Celtics and the Under in here.
  • Score 107-110 (217)
  • W/L LOSS
  • Profit -3.15

11/05 Tracking NBA Play #4

Additional Info

  • Date Wednesday, 05 November 2014
  • Sport NBA
  • Road Team Toronto Raptors
  • Home Team Boston Celtics
  • Rating 4* Regular Play
  • Selection Boston -2
  • Sportsbook Pinnacle Sports
  • Line -105 / 1.95
  • Alternative Book Bookmaker
  • Line -110 / 1.91
  • Write up
    Toronto is coming from a win at home against the Thunder last night, but they continue with the same issues: they continue to struggle in shooting the basket, but their ball movement actually improved a bit with 23 assists, but it's still quite poor. However, once again, Toronto had an edge on rebounding with 12 offensive rebounds and a lot of free throws attempts with 28-33 FT! The Raptors have now attempted 33, 48, 39 and 33 free throws on their last four games, however they have a problem for tonight. They will be in a terrible spot tonight by playing their fourth game in five nights, while this being also a back to back spot. In such spot, I don't think the Raptors will lack the energy to be ultra aggressive tonight to get all those free throw attempts.
     
    This is especially true because the Raptors will be without their two frontcourt players for tonight. Their defense will be fine with Hansbrough, Hayes and Stiemsma, but their offense will struggle a lot due to lack of scoring punch. This will put a lot of pressure on their backcourt to be efficient tonight and on a tough physical spot, this doesn't bode well for Toronto's offense. This will be excellent news for Boston's defense that won't finally face an elite offense like they did against Houston and Dallas on their last two games. 
     
    Boston's offense has been great at attacking the rim and they are #2 in the league in FG attempts at the rim and with the Raptors missing Amir and Valanciunas, this bodes very well for the Celtics. The home team will also have a clear physical edge for tonight, with the Celtics' backcourt defense having the right amount of quality to defend Lowry and DeRozan. I see the Celtics picking up a nice home win tonight on a relatively low scoring affair and so, I'll take both the Celtics and the Under in here.
  • Score 107-110
  • W/L LOSS
  • Profit -3.15

11/05 Tracking NBA Play #3

Additional Info

  • Date Wednesday, 05 November 2014
  • Sport NBA
  • Road Team Indiana Pacers
  • Home Team Washington Wizards
  • Rating 4* Regular Play
  • Selection Washington -9.5
  • Sportsbook Pinnacle Sports
  • Line -109 / 1.92
  • Alternative Book Bookmaker
  • Line -110 / 1.91
  • Write up
    I believe Washington will have an easy win tonight, as there's just too many things favoring them in here. The Wizards are coming from a comfortable win at NY against the Knicks, where nobody played more than 30 minutes. That was due to the fact that the second unit played so well in the third quarter that Washington's coach let them stay on the court for obvious reasons. Washington's ball movement has been good and they are creating some solid outside shots opportunities and that's Indiana's defense weakest link. The Pacers still have great inside defensive numbers thanks to Hibbert, but without Hill, Stephenson and George, their perimeter defense is now miles away from last year's quality.
     
    On the other hand, Indiana's offense has no flow unless in some short spans where the second unit enters and gets well led by Stuckey, who is physically limited and can't play major minutes at the moment. Their turnovers continue to be a problem, with 18, 18, 18 and 19 turnovers on their first four games of the season and with Hibbert being the team's only threat on the inside game, Indiana is just too easy to defend these days. Washington with revenge on their mind for last year's playoffs will be glad to crush Indiana tonight. Therefore, I'll take the Wizards in here.
  • Score 96-94
  • W/L LOSS
  • Profit -3.27

11/05 Tracking NBA Play #2

Additional Info

  • Date Wednesday, 05 November 2014
  • Sport NBA
  • Road Team Orlando Magic
  • Home Team Philadelphia 76ers
  • Rating 4* Regular Play
  • Selection Orlando -3
  • Sportsbook Pinnacle Sports
  • Line -104 / 1.96
  • Alternative Book Betonline
  • Line -110 / 1.91
  • Write up
    I believe Orlando has an excellent opportunity to get their first win of the season in here. Philadelphia is some steps below every team in the league, Orlando included. In fact, the Magic are 0-4, but they faced good teams and they were quite competitive in most if not all these games.
     
    Both teams love to attack the rim, but the gap in talent between these two teams is quite big, at least until Carter-Williams is able to come back to the lineup. I believe Orlando will show tonight that they might be weak, but far from being as weak as the Sixers and so, I'll take the Magic tonight for a comfortable win for them.
  • Score 89-91
  • W/L LOSS
  • Profit -3.12

11/05 Tracking NBA Play #1

Additional Info

  • Date Wednesday, 05 November 2014
  • Sport NBA
  • Road Team Denver Nuggets
  • Home Team Sacramento Kings
  • Rating 4* Regular Play
  • Selection Sacramento -3.5
  • Sportsbook Pinnacle Sports
  • Line -105 / 1.95
  • Alternative Book Bookmaker
  • Line -110 / 1.91
  • Write up
    This a home-home series, as Sacramento played and won at Denver last Monday night. The Kings' bench was incredible the whole game and it really helped removing the bad physical spot that Sacramento's starting line up had, as they were on a back to back spot. Denver's natural problems on outside shooting continued and with this being the weakest point in Sacramento's defense, I expect the Kings to have another good defensive performance in here.
     
    Even with a good physical edge for last Monday's game, Denver still couldn't beat Sacramento. Now on a much better spot for the Kings, I believe Sacramento's starters will show more energy tonight and with that, Denver will have even bigger problems than the ones they faced against the same Kings last Monday at Denver. The Nuggets shot just 5-24 3pts on Monday's game and this is perfect for Sacramento's defensive scheme, a team that normally struggles on perimeter defense. Denver then needs to score badly near the basket and Sacramento will have a mega edge in this department with Cousins playing very well on this early season. Therefore, I expect another comfortable win for Sacramento tonight and so, I'll take them in here.
  • Score 131-109
  • W/L WIN
  • Profit +3.00

11/04 Tracking NBA Play #6

Additional Info

  • Date Tuesday, 04 November 2014
  • Sport NBA
  • Road Team Cleveland Cavaliers
  • Home Team Portland Trail Blazers
  • Rating 4* Regular Play
  • Selection Over 205
  • Sportsbook Pinnacle Sports
  • Line -103 / 1.97
  • Alternative Book Bookmaker
  • Line -110 / 1.91
  • Write up
    I believe this match up really favors a very high scoring contest. First of all, the pace will be quite high because Cleveland will come a bit relaxed on their first game of this road trip, while I really don't think Portland will want to play a slow paced game against Cleveland as well. Then, the match ups are also very offense-oriented, especially the match ups between Aldridge & Love and Lillard & Irving. 
     
    Cleveland's perimeter defense has been kinda weak on this early season, with the Knicks scoring a bunch of perimeter shots against them and Chicago making 13 treys as well. Portland's outside shooting has been a bit off on this early season, but sooner or later they will starting hitting them, as they have been over the past couple of seasons. Cleveland has already realized that playing on a super slow paced game doesn't suit them well, as seen on their game against the Knicks and so, they set a faster pace against the Bulls and scored 21 fast break points in the process. I see this game being a very high scoring game and so, I'll take the Over in here.
  • Score 101-82 (183)
  • W/L LOSS
  • Profit -3.09

11/04 Tracking NBA Play #5

Additional Info

  • Date Tuesday, 04 November 2014
  • Sport NBA
  • Road Team Houston Rockets
  • Home Team Miami Heat
  • Rating 4* Regular Play
  • Selection Miami ML
  • Sportsbook Pinnacle Sports
  • Line -116 / 1.86
  • Alternative Book Betonline
  • Line -120 / 1.83
  • Write up
    This is a quite bad spot for Houston, who is coming from four games in a row against lowly teams. On this particular spot, Houston would require a lot of good play from their second unit. Harden has been amazing in this early season, but the Rockets are also being very turnover prone, with 18, 19 and 22 turnovers on their last three games. This is going to be a huge problem against Miami, whose aggressive defense puts a lot of pressure on the opposing ball handlers, something that will force a quite large number of turnovers tonight.
     
    Miami is sharing the ball well and they have also won the boards battle in all their three games so far. Bosh has been playing like a true superstar and leading the Heat to a very high level of basketball. I believe Miami is the better team at the moment in here and so, I'll take them tonight.
  • Score 91-108
  • W/L LOSS
  • Profit -3.48

11/04 Tracking NBA Play #4

Additional Info

  • Date Tuesday, 04 November 2014
  • Sport NBA
  • Road Team Washington Wizards
  • Home Team New York Knicks
  • Rating 4* Regular Play
  • Selection Washington -1.5
  • Sportsbook Pinnacle Sports
  • Line -108 / 1.92
  • Alternative Book Bookmaker
  • Line -110 / 1.91
  • Write up
    Washington will have two key edges in here. First of all, John Wall will have a huge edge over all the Knicks' PG's, who won't stand a chance against him. Then, the same should happen with Gortat and Nene being too much for the Knicks' poor frontcourt. Washington has their best players exactly on the Knicks' weakest positions and this makes the Wizards a very tough match up for the Knicks.
     
    The NY team is living exclusively through something that is very hard to have success in the NBA in long-term basis: mid-range jumpers! They don't score in transition and they aren't aggressive and so, they don't shoot free throws. It's all about jumpers for them, turning this offense into a very one-dimensional unit. On the other hand, Washington is already showing good dynamic with Wall feeding the big guys quite well. I see the Wizards as the better team in here and so, I'll take them tonight.
  • Score 83-98
  • W/L WIN
  • Profit +3.00

11/04 Tracking NBA Play #2

Additional Info

  • Date Tuesday, 04 November 2014
  • Sport NBA
  • Road Team Milwaukee Bucks
  • Home Team Indiana Pacers
  • Rating 4* Regular Play
  • Selection Under 192.5
  • Sportsbook Pinnacle Sports
  • Line -108 / 1.92
  • Alternative Book Bookmaker
  • Line -110 / 1.91
  • Write up
    I believe this won't be a nice game to watch, as both teams shoot a bunch of contested shots and so, we'll see both teams to shoot some bricks tonight. Milwaukee's main problem this season has been their turnovers. They are very turnover prone and committed 28 at Washington, after having committed 21 against Philadelphia. However, Indiana's defense isn't aggressive on traps to force turnovers and so, I believe the Bucks won't commit a very high amount of turnovers tonight.
     
    Milwaukee got crushed at Washington by the Wizards' frontcourt. Milwaukee's PF position is by far their weakest link on defense and Nene took advantage of that to shoot 10-12 FG! Until now, Indiana's current lineup hasn't been very good on offense and in fact, their second unit has been a bit more effective on offense with some treys, but nothing special. The problem for Indiana is that Milwaukee's second unit has been their strongest link so far in this season. The Bucks are also rebounding well for now and they should get an important edge on this area tonight. I see the Bucks having a nice chance of committing the upset tonight and so, I'll take them in here. As I said before, I think both teams will shoot a bunch of contested shots, turning this game into a brick fest and consequently into a low scoring affair. Therefore, I'll be also taking the Under in here.

     

  • Score 81-87 (168)
  • W/L WIN
  • Profit +3.00

11/04 Tracking NBA Play #1

Additional Info

  • Date Tuesday, 04 November 2014
  • Sport NBA
  • Road Team Milwaukee Bucks
  • Home Team Indiana Pacers
  • Rating 4* Regular Play
  • Selection Milwaukee +4.5
  • Sportsbook Pinnacle Sports
  • Line -104 / 1.96
  • Alternative Book Bookmaker
  • Line -110 / 1.91
  • Write up
    I believe this won't be a nice game to watch, as both teams shoot a bunch of contested shots and so, we'll see both teams to shoot some bricks tonight. Milwaukee's main problem this season has been their turnovers. They are very turnover prone and committed 28 at Washington, after having committed 21 against Philadelphia. However, Indiana's defense isn't aggressive on traps to force turnovers and so, I believe the Bucks won't commit a very high amount of turnovers tonight.
     
    Milwaukee got crushed at Washington by the Wizards' frontcourt. Milwaukee's PF position is by far their weakest link on defense and Nene took advantage of that to shoot 10-12 FG! Until now, Indiana's current lineup hasn't been very good on offense and in fact, their second unit has been a bit more effective on offense with some treys, but nothing special. The problem for Indiana is that Milwaukee's second unit has been their strongest link so far in this season. The Bucks are also rebounding well for now and they should get an important edge on this area tonight. I see the Bucks having a nice chance of committing the upset tonight and so, I'll take them in here. As I said before, I think both teams will shoot a bunch of contested shots, turning this game into a brick fest and consequently into a low scoring affair. Therefore, I'll be also taking the Under in here.

     

  • Score 81-87
  • W/L WIN
  • Profit +3.00

11/04 Tracking NBA Play #3

Additional Info

  • Date Tuesday, 04 November 2014
  • Sport NBA
  • Road Team Oklahoma City Thunder
  • Home Team Toronto Raptors
  • Rating 4* Regular Play
  • Selection Under 194
  • Sportsbook Pinnacle Sports
  • Line -105 / 1.95
  • Alternative Book Bookmaker
  • Line -110 / 1.91
  • Write up
    Oklahoma City is on a bad physical spot tonight, with a bunch of injured players and without Durant and Westbrook, they naturally lack a scoring punch. The Thunder dished 14 assists against a Nets defense that isn't an elite defense and I guess this says it all. So, the key in here will be to understand the match up between Toronto's offense and Oklahoma City's defense. The game yesterday between Brooklyn and Oklahoma City went over the total posted because Brooklyn had an offensive explosion due to a great outside shooting night. However, that's unlikely to happen tonight because Toronto's offense is struggling at the moment with poor ball movement, with just 13 and 11 assists on their last two games. 
     
    The Raptors have been able to score via free throws and offensive rebounds. However, if there is something with quality that Oklahoma City still has, that's their frontcourt with Ibaka, Adams and Perkins. Therefore, I expect the Thunder to have a solid interior defense game, while the Raptors' perimeter game won't be at all as explosive as Brooklyn was last night. I see this game being a low scoring affair and so, I'll take the Under in here.

     

  • Score 100-88 (188)
  • W/L WIN
  • Profit +3.00

11/03 Tracking NBA Play #3

Additional Info

  • Date Monday, 03 November 2014
  • Sport NBA
  • Road Team Sacramento Kings
  • Home Team Denver Nuggets
  • Rating 4* Regular Play
  • Selection Sacramento (+5)
  • Sportsbook Pinnacle Sports
  • Line -113 / 1.88
  • Alternative Book Bookmaker
  • Line -115 / 1.87
  • Write up
    We've been perfect in games involving Sacramento this season with 3-0 ATS. I believe that the Kings will once again be competitive tonight. They aren't an elite team and they have their weaknesses, especially on their perimeter defense where they are allowing some great looks to their opponents. Fortunately for them, Sacramento's opponents haven't been taking advantage of that with 6-27, 9-26 and 9-31 3pts. This trend should continue tonight, as Denver isn't a good outside shooting team and so, Sacramento's defense will be able to continue having the same mindset of closing the paint and this will work very well against Denver's offense.
     
    Both teams are good rebounding squads and they like to attack with aggression to get a lot of free throw opportunities. Denver has potential, but they still have a lot of things off sync at the moment. Also Gallinari and Lawson are struggling physically and this is a huge problem for the Nuggets. Denver is a team with bad backup PG's and they beat Detroit at home because the Pistons were outright horrible down the stretch. Then at Oklahoma City, the Nuggets got crushed by a Thunder team missing both Durant and Westbrook. Looking at DeMarcus Cousins' form at the moment, who is playing like a top 5 player in the league right now, and also with Rudy Gay having a very favorable matchup against Gallinari, I believe that this will be a close game and so, I'll take the Kings tonight.
  • Score 105-110
  • W/L WIN
  • Profit +3.00

11/03 Tracking NBA Play #2

Additional Info

  • Date Monday, 03 November 2014
  • Sport NBA
  • Road Team Boston Celtics
  • Home Team Dallas Mavericks
  • Rating 4* Regular Play
  • Selection Boston FIRST HALF (+5)
  • Sportsbook Pinnacle Sports
  • Line -105 / 1.95
  • Alternative Book 5 Dimes
  • Line -110 / 1.91
  • Write up
    I believe Boston has the right ingredients to cause problems to Dallas at the start of the game. Dallas is coming from a game against New Orleans's poor perimeter defense and they will now face a team that has a quite aggressive perimeter defense. If there is a problem with the Mavs is the fact that they are quite soft and the fired up Celtics, after a humiliating defeated at Houston should take advantage of that to catch Dallas by surprise tonight.
     
    Dallas's perimeter game has been excellent, but I must say that they also faced some favorable match ups like Utah and New Orleans. Now against the much more aggressive Celtics, I expect Boston to have a good start of the game. I know that they didn't show that aggression on their game at Houston, but this is exactly why they will come fired up for tonight. Boston scored 62 and 60 points in the paint on their first two games of the season and in tonight's contest, only Chandler might offer some resistance near the basket. I believe the Celtics will play a very good first half tonight and so, I'll take them in here on a FIRST HALF bet!

     

  • Score 67-41
  • W/L LOSS
  • Profit -3.15

11/03 Tracking NBA Play #1

Additional Info

  • Date Monday, 03 November 2014
  • Sport NBA
  • Road Team Utah Jazz
  • Home Team Los Angeles Clippers
  • Rating 4* Regular Play
  • Selection Under 205
  • Sportsbook Pinnacle Sports
  • Line -110 / 1.91
  • Alternative Book Bookmaker
  • Line -110 / 1.91
  • Write up
    The Clippers' offense isn't still spot on at all. Their jump shooting continues to be weak and now without Jamal Crawford for tonight, things only get worse. J.J. Redick is their only talented outside shooter available for tonight's game, but he also seems to be in a slump when it comes to three-point shooting. Thanks to that, their opponents are being able to close the paint better when they face the Clippers and this is really bad news for the LA team's offense, especially on a back to back spot for them, where they'll be playing their fourth game in five nights. The Clippers shot 7-30, 12-33 and 9-31 3pts on their first three games of the season and I don't expect these poor numbers to be improved tonight.
     
    I believe Utah will come to this game with their gameplan very well studied. The problem is that the Jazz also struggle on hitting outside shots, with 3-18, 14-35 and 7-26 3pts on their first three games of the season. Even on their blowout win against the Suns, they shot just 7-26 3pts and they won thanks to their 66 points in the paint and 35 fast break points. However, one thing is facing the undersized Suns frontcourt that allowed Favors to have a monster game (12-22 FG, 8-9 FG and 32 points), another thing will be facing the Clippers' frontcourt unit. With both teams having some issues to score inside and struggling from the perimeter, I see good value in taking the Under in here.

     

  • Score 107-101 (208)
  • W/L LOSS
  • Profit -3.30

11/02 Tracking NBA Play #3

Additional Info

  • Date Sunday, 02 November 2014
  • Sport NBA
  • Road Team Charlotte Hornets
  • Home Team New York Knicks
  • Rating 4* Regular Play
  • Selection Under 186
  • Sportsbook Pinnacle Sports
  • Line -105 / 1.95
  • Alternative Book 5 Dimes
  • Line -110 / 1.91
  • Write up

    I expect this contest to be a pure half court game, played in a super slow pace. Both teams are working in new offensive schemes: the Knicks with the "triangle offense", while the Hornets are also running a lot of new stuff on offense, excluding some default set plays for Big Al and Kemba. Considering the new offensive schemes combined with the super slow pace, I believe both offenses will have very low efficiency in here. On the other side, both defenses have been quite decent at the start of this season and they are definitely playing better than their offenses. Therefore, I believe this will be a really low scoring affair and so, I'll take the Under in here.

  • Score 96-93 (189)
  • W/L LOSS
  • Profit -3.15

11/02 Tracking NBA Play #2

Additional Info

  • Date Sunday, 02 November 2014
  • Sport NBA
  • Road Team Toronto Raptors
  • Home Team Miami Heat
  • Rating 4* Regular Play
  • Selection Under 197.5
  • Sportsbook Pinnacle Sports
  • Line -103 / 1.97
  • Alternative Book 5 Dimes
  • Line -110 / 1.91
  • Write up
    I successfully took the over in the games involving these two teams last night. The "matchup" was perfect for both teams: they were facing fast paced teams with little defensive ability. Today the story will be different on this back to back spot for both teams. The Heat scored 44 and 38 points in the paint on their first two games of the season, however they faced Washington without Nene and then the lowly Sixers. Things will be different today, as Toronto has a much stronger inside defense. The Raptors are also a good pick and roll defensive team and so, this will be the first real test for Miami's offense in here. Speaking of tests, this will also be a big test to Wade, who used to rest on back to back spots last season, but now with Lebron gone, he can't do that anymore. 
     
    On the other hand, Toronto's offense is very far from being a sharp unit right now. They shot in the low 40%'s on their first two games of the season and they only managed to score big via offensive rebounds and free throws. The problem is that while I expect them to naturally outrebound this Miami team, I don't think that the Raptors will have a high number of free throws against an organized Miami defense that doesn't like to send their opponents to the FT line. On the other hand, also due to the back to back spot, the Raptors will be less aggressive and in consequence, they will have less free throw attempts. I think this game's totals line is very overrated due to both teams being 2-0 Over at the moment and so, I'll take the Under in here.
  • Score 107-102 (209)
  • W/L LOSS
  • Profit -3.09

11/02 Tracking NBA Play #1

Additional Info

  • Date Sunday, 02 November 2014
  • Sport NBA
  • Road Team Sacramento Kings
  • Home Team Los Angeles Clippers
  • Rating 4* Regular Play
  • Selection Sacramento +9.5
  • Sportsbook Pinnacle Sports
  • Line -110 / 1.91
  • Alternative Book Betonline
  • Line -115 / 1.87
  • Write up
    The Clippers aren't sharp enough at the moment to have this kind of line against the Kings. That's noticeable to me since their preseason game against Utah, where I took the Clippers -5 and it was a push. They played for real in that game, with the starters playing over 30 minutes and so full of intensity that Blake got into a fight with Booker! However, they still struggled to beat the lowly Jazz. Their outside shooting is off sync, their SF position is being a black hole and their bench is also lacking options besides Crawford and Hawes. I've also noted their lack of in-game consistency. That was visible against the Thunder, where they almost had a double digits lead without Westbrook on court, but they still allowed Oklahoma City to comeback to the game.
     
    On the other hand, I like Sacramento's defense against Golden State. Of course their offense struggled in that game, but their defense was really good, as they stopped a great Warriors offense that put 127 points on the Lakers last night! Then, on their game against Portland, the Kings did another good defensive performance, once again against a good offensive team like the Blazers. After limiting Curry, then also limited Lillard very well! However, what impressed me the most in Sacramento so far in this season is their rebounding edge, as they grabbed 56% of the boards in both games, an area where the Clippers are struggling.
     
    We have two important edges for the Kings in here: rebounding and good defense. This is exactly what we want on a +10 points underdog. Besides that, Rudy Gay is on fire right now and the Clippers is struggling a lot at the SF position at the moment. This is a great spot and match up to take the double digits underdog and this is exactly what I'm doing in here. Take Sacramento today!
  • Score 92-98
  • W/L WIN
  • Profit +3.00

11/01 Tracking NBA Play #7

Additional Info

  • Date Saturday, 01 November 2014
  • Sport NBA
  • Road Team Toronto Raptors
  • Home Team Orlando Magic
  • Rating 4* Regular Play
  • Selection Over 195
  • Sportsbook Pinnacle Sports
  • Line -109 / 1.90
  • Alternative Book 5 Dimes
  • Line -110 / 1.91
  • Write up
    The play that I had on the Under in Orlando's last game against Washington was by far the most frustrating play so far in the season. First of all, one of the Magic's best defenders (O'Quinn) was out, Frye was probable and Gordon was the most used bench player in that game. These three factors helped Orlando's offense, while they weakened their defense. The Magic are also a team that loves to run and their preseason games had the following pace factors: 90.84; 94.89; 97.40; 97.73; 98.86; 97.73; 92.49; 99.44! Already in the regular season, their games were also fast paced (92.58 and 93.60), even though they faced New Orleans and Washington, two slow paced teams! On the other hand, Toronto faced Atlanta at home on their season opener and that game was also fast with a pace factor of 93.60! Therefore, this game should definitely be fast paced.
     
    Toronto showed some good offense against the Hawks on their season opener and now facing the poor defense of the Magic, they should have no problems in repeating another good offensive performance in here. The Raptors showed a good interior defense and they should indeed cause problems to Orlando on this area, however with Gordon and Frye playing, Orlando has more firepower on their perimeter shooting to counter that. I believe this game will be played on a fast paced game, with both teams having at least decent offensive performances and so, I'll take the Over in here.
  • Score 95-108 (203)
  • W/L WIN
  • Profit +3.00

11/01 Tracking NBA Play #6

Additional Info

  • Date Saturday, 01 November 2014
  • Sport NBA
  • Road Team Indiana Pacers
  • Home Team Atlanta Hawks
  • Rating 4* Regular Play
  • Selection Atlanta -11
  • Sportsbook Pinnacle Sports
  • Line +100 / 2.00
  • Alternative Book 5 Dimes
  • Line -110 / 1.91
  • Write up
    Atlanta was already a bad matchup for Indiana, regardless the injuries. In fact, the Hawks took the Pacers to seven games in the playoffs last season. Indiana's defense has now regressed and that's normal given the key injuries. Philadelphia's offense scored easy points against them until they ran out of gas and yesterday against Memphis, on a super slow paced game, the Grizzlies still had a ridiculous 115 offense rate! Both the Grizzlies and the Sixers are poor outside shooting teams, but they still cause a lot of problems to the Pacers' defense.
     
    Things will only get a lot tougher against Atlanta, a team that is a really good outside shooting team and that will force Hibbert to leave the rim and put Indiana's defense in an even tougher situation. The Hawks lost their first game of the regular season in Toronto, where their turnovers were their kiss of death. However, this shouldn't be a problem tonight, as Indiana isn't an aggressive team and they forced just 11 and 9 turnovers on their first two games of the season. The Pacers' offense depends a lot from their perimeter shooting and if they were already very inconsistent last season, things only got worse this season. Stuckey has been their best player, but he is physically limited and can only played 20 minutes per game. I see Atlanta having a very easy win tonight and so, I'll take them in here.
  • Score 102-92
  • W/L LOSS
  • Profit -3.00

11/01 Tracking NBA Play #5

Additional Info

  • Date Saturday, 01 November 2014
  • Sport NBA
  • Road Team Dallas Mavericks
  • Home Team New Orleans Pelicans
  • Rating 4* Regular Play
  • Selection Dallas PK
  • Sportsbook Pinnacle Sports
  • Line -102 / 1.98
  • Alternative Book 5 Dimes
  • Line -110 / 1.91
  • Write up
    I believe Dallas will be too good for the Pelicans, who looked good on their season opener against Orlando, but who still have a lot to improve. First of all, New Orleans's perimeter defense is bad and it will be never be good due to their coach Monty Williams, who has the wrong defensive principles to make the Pelicans good in prevent the opposing treys. Of course it was easy for New Orleans to stop Orlando from making treys (4-11 3pts), as they lack outside shooting skills. The problem is that Dallas is an elite team in outside shooting and they will torch the Pelicans' poor perimeter defense in here.
     
    So, the key in here will be in the match up between the Pelicans' offense and Dallas's defense. There's no doubt that Dallas's offense will be efficient in here, so the key is to know if New Orleans's offense will be able to match Dallas's offensive production. I believe the Pelicans still need to improve a lot on offense. They shot 4-17 3pts against Orlando in their season opener and they are too dependent from Ryan Anderson when it comes to outside shooting. Then, the Mavs defense looks a completely different unit with Chandler on the court. They allowed just 32 and 28 points in the paint on their first two games of the season, in a clear sign that the Pelicans will also struggle in here to score down low. This is especially true because Dallas know how to use zone defense and make the Pelicans' offense struggle even more. I think Dallas is clearly the better team right now and so, I'll take them in here.
  • Score 104-109
  • W/L WIN
  • Profit +3.00
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