Track Picks

Track Picks

11/01 Tracking NBA Play #3

Additional Info

  • Date Saturday, 01 November 2014
  • Sport NBA
  • Road Team Los Angeles Lakers
  • Home Team Golden State Warriors
  • Rating 4* Regular Play
  • Selection Golden State -15
  • Sportsbook Pinnacle Sports
  • Line +100 / 2.00
  • Alternative Book 5 Dimes
  • Line -110 / 1.91
  • Write up
    It's known that I love Golden State this season and this is why I made a fun bet on the Over on their regular season total wins. I also took them on their first game of the season at Sacramento, where the Warriors showed some super great defense once again. Their margin of victory wasn't bigger because they somehow missed a lot of good looks on offense, especially in the first half where they couldn't score from the outside. However, as soon as their treys started to hit in the second half, they easily beat the Kings.
     
    Now tonight against a tired Lakers team, playing their fourth game in five nights, while being also in a back to back spot, this should be an easy game for Golden State, even without Lee, who will be out tonight. Kobe, Lin and Hill all played over 34 minutes last night and with the Warriors creating open looks against the Lakers' poor and tired defense, this should be a complete blowout game. Therefore, I'll be taking the Warriors tonight.
  • Score 127-104
  • W/L WIN
  • Profit +3.00

11/01 Tracking NBA Play #2

Additional Info

  • Date Saturday, 01 November 2014
  • Sport NBA
  • Road Team Boston Celtics
  • Home Team Houston Rockets
  • Rating 4* Regular Play
  • Selection Boston +8
  • Sportsbook Pinnacle Sports
  • Line +100 / 2.00
  • Alternative Book 5 Dimes
  • Line -110 / 1.91
  • Write up
    Boston is adopting a new style on the new season to catch the league by surprise with an uptempo game, while spreading the floor a lot. As long as Rondo is healthy, they will have the required playmaker to make this offensive machine be very effective. They absolutely crushed Brooklyn's defense in style on their season opener, especially with their aggressiveness in attacking the rim with an impressive 62 points scored in the paint. They will obviously try the same tonight. 
     
    Houston is 2-0 on the season, but their first two games went Under the total posted. However, this wasn't due to their offense, as they posted 118.4 and 116.3 offensive ratings according to my numbers on their first two games! Excellent marks! However, the Lakers' offense struggled and couldn't be effective against Houston, while their game at Utah was played at a really slow pace. Boston will attack the rim in here, even with Howard on the court and note that the Rockets allowed 62 points in the paint to the Jazz, so their rim defense isn't very sharp at the moment. Beverley is banged up and he's Houston's best perimeter defense, so everything points to another good performance in here by the Celtics' offense.
     
    On the other hand, Houston's offense will crush Boston's undersized lineup with Howard. The Rockets' offense is showing very good ball movement and with Houston finally facing an opponent that will be happy to play a pure run and gun game, this contest should suffer an offensive explosion! I like Boston to surprise Houston in here and this is why I'm taking the Celtics in a Single Dime Play. However, what I really love in here is this game to become a super high scoring affair and therefore, I'll be taking the Over in here in a Triple Dime Play!
  • Score 104-90
  • W/L LOSS
  • Profit -3.00

11/01 Tracking NBA Play #1

Additional Info

  • Date Saturday, 01 November 2014
  • Sport NBA
  • Road Team Boston Celtics
  • Home Team Houston Rockets
  • Selection Over 207
  • Sportsbook Pinnacle Sports
  • Line -102 / 1.98
  • Alternative Book 5 Dimes
  • Line -110 / 1.91
  • Write up
    *** First Triple Dime Play of the Season***
     
    Boston is adopting a new style on the new season to catch the league by surprise with an uptempo game, while spreading the floor a lot. As long as Rondo is healthy, they will have the required playmaker to make this offensive machine be very effective. They absolutely crushed Brooklyn's defense in style on their season opener, especially with their aggressiveness in attacking the rim with an impressive 62 points scored in the paint. They will obviously try the same tonight. 
     
    Houston is 2-0 on the season, but their first two games went Under the total posted. However, this wasn't due to their offense, as they posted 118.4 and 116.3 offensive ratings according to my numbers on their first two games! Excellent marks! However, the Lakers' offense struggled and couldn't be effective against Houston, while their game at Utah was played at a really slow pace. Boston will attack the rim in here, even with Howard on the court and note that the Rockets allowed 62 points in the paint to the Jazz, so their rim defense isn't very sharp at the moment. Beverley is banged up and he's Houston's best perimeter defense, so everything points to another good performance in here by the Celtics' offense.
     
    On the other hand, Houston's offense will crush Boston's undersized lineup with Howard. The Rockets' offense is showing very good ball movement and with Houston finally facing an opponent that will be happy to play a pure run and gun game, this contest should suffer an offensive explosion! I like Boston to surprise Houston in here and this is why I'm taking the Celtics in a Single Dime Play. However, what I really love in here is this game to become a super high scoring affair and therefore, I'll be taking the Over in here in a Triple Dime Play!
  • Score 104-90 (194)
  • W/L LOSS
  • Profit -5.10

10/31 Tracking NBA Play #6

Additional Info

  • Date Friday, 31 October 2014
  • Sport NBA
  • Road Team Portland Trail Blazers
  • Home Team Sacramento Kings
  • Rating 4* Regular Play
  • Selection Sacramento +5
  • Sportsbook Pinnacle Sports
  • Line -107 / 1.93
  • Alternative Book 5 Dimes
  • Line -110 / 1.91
  • Write up
    Sacramento was involved in a great defensive battle against Golden State on their season opener. First of all, this is a huge compliment to Sacramento's defense that managed to keep their team competitive against a really good opponent. In fact, the Kings fought for the win until mid-third quarter. Their turnovers were a huge problem for Sacramento, as they committed 27 of them. However, the key for their loss was the subpar games of Gay and Cousins, with a combined of 9-29 FG! But why did that happen? Because of Bogut, Iguodala and Barnes, the leaders of Golden State's stellar defense! In fact, the key run of the game was with Cousins on the bench in mid-third quarter. The Warriors went with a super small lineup and made a 10-0 run that allowed them to get the upper hand in the contest.
     
    For tonight, Portland will be a clearly much more "accessible" match up for Sacramento. Cousins will now face Lopez and Kaman, while Gay goes from facing Iguodala to face Batum, a much worse defender than Iggy. The Blazers beat the Thunder last night, but they needed a fourth quarter run to beat an Oklahoma City that was on a back to back spot and playing without Westbrook since mid-second quarter. Portland doesn't look sharp to me right now and definitely not at Golden State's level. I think the Blazers are getting overrated in here by having the same line that the Warriors had on their season opener, also in Sacramento. I see the Kings having a great chance for the upset tonight and so, I'll take them in here.
  • Score 103-94
  • W/L WIN
  • Profit +3.00

10/31 Tracking NBA Play #5

Additional Info

  • Date Friday, 31 October 2014
  • Sport NBA
  • Road Team Philadelphia 76ers
  • Home Team Milwaukee Bucks
  • Rating 4* Regular Play
  • Selection Milwaukee -8
  • Sportsbook Pinnacle Sports
  • Line -110 / 1.91
  • Alternative Book Bookmaker
  • Line -110 / 1.91
  • Write up
    Philadelphia has obviously very little talent and depth. They look to attack the rim and try some contested treys. If they can't be effective from these two areas, they're absolutely toasted. The Pacers packed the paint during the second half and Philadelphia was only able to score 40 points in the second half. On the other hand, I watched Milwaukee's season opener at Charlotte and I was impressed with the Bucks' team chemistry that is already much better than I expected it to be right now. Both the first and the second units are already showing good flow and they are sharing the ball with some quality as well. In fact, the Bucks were up by 24 points midway the third quarter and that wasn't shocking, as they were indeed playing very well, but then as they are a young team, they choked the game away down the stretch.
     
    In tonight's matchup, Milwaukee will have a huge edge on their second unit. The bad play of the second unit was one of Philadelphia's main problems on their season opener at Indiana. So, the key in here will be to know if Milwaukee's defense will contain Philadelphia from attacking the rim and the answer is yes! Milwaukee led by Sanders limited Big Al to just 6-15 FG, while the Bobcats overall shot just 17-33 FG (51.5%) at the rim with 33% volume! With that area of the Sixers' limited, they will be toasted, allowing Milwaukee to pick up a double digits win in here. I'm taking Milwaukee tonight.
  • Score 93-81
  • W/L WIN
  • Profit +3.00

10/31 Tracking NBA Play #4

Additional Info

  • Date Friday, 31 October 2014
  • Sport NBA
  • Road Team Cleveland Cavaliers
  • Home Team Chicago Bulls
  • Rating 4* Regular Play
  • Selection Chicago -4
  • Sportsbook Pinnacle Sports
  • Line -103 / 1.97
  • Alternative Book 5 Dimes
  • Line -110 / 1.91
  • Write up
    I took the Cavs last night at home against the Knicks and it was a massive disappointment. The Knicks set a very slow tempo and Cleveland's offense was a mess the whole game with a lot of risky passes. Cleveland never looked comfortable and one thing is a fast paced game with Cleveland in open court, another different thing is Cleveland on a grind out pace, where they struggled badly last night and where they'll struggle again tonight.
     
    It was surprising to see Cleveland rotating the team very little yesterday, with both Lebron and Irving playing 43 minutes, while Waiters played 38 minutes. This can definitely be a factor for tonight, as Chicago's second unit has already showed that they are very good and they'll set an extra gear tonight. That's probably going to be the Bulls' biggest edge in tonight's contest. I mentioned yesterday that Cleveland's interior defense is quite poor, but that the Knicks didn't take advantage of that with just 22 points scored in the paint. However, things will be very different with Chicago, who has Gasol and Gibson to exploit that. On a grind out game, Chicago is right now clearly the better team and so, I'll take them in here.
  • Score 108-114
  • W/L LOSS
  • Profit -3.09

10/31 Tracking NBA Play #3

Additional Info

  • Date Friday, 31 October 2014
  • Sport NBA
  • Road Team Memphis Grizzlies
  • Home Team Indiana Pacers
  • Rating 4* Regular Play
  • Selection Memphis -6
  • Sportsbook Pinnacle Sports
  • Line -105 / 1.95
  • Alternative Book Betonline
  • Line -110 / 1.91
  • Write up
    Indiana beat Philadelphia on their first game, but just the fact that they were once down by double digits points against the lowly Sixers is immediately a warning sign. The Pacers struggled in stopping Philadelphia's transition game, who also easily penetrated into the basket. Of course Philadelphia lacks individual talent and so, they missed a lot, however it was still worrying how the Sixers scored against them. Indiana was benefited from the fact that Philadelphia's frontcourt got into early foul trouble and their second unit was easily outmatched by the Pacers. On the second half, the Pacers also adjusted and clogged the paint, with good games from Sloan and Stuckey. 
     
    The problem for the Pacers tonight is that they won't be facing a poor defensive team like the Sixers. It will be a lot harder for Hibbert to score against Gasol, Sloan to score against Conley and Stuckey to score against Allen. Therefore, I expect a clear regression of Indiana's offense. Regarding the match up between the Grizzlies' offense and the Pacers' defense, Indiana just can't match their defensive level from last season at the moment. If Hibbert will indeed manage to limit Gasol, Randolph will have a total mismatch over Scola. The Pacers' perimeter defense is also very far from last year's level right now and Memphis showed a good offensive performance on their season opener, something that I expect to show once again tonight. I see Memphis getting an easy win tonight and so, I'll take them in here.

     

  • Score 89-97
  • W/L WIN
  • Profit +3.00

10/31 Tracking NBA Play #2

Additional Info

  • Date Friday, 31 October 2014
  • Sport NBA
  • Road Team San Antonio
  • Home Team Phoenix
  • Rating 4* Regular Play
  • Selection Over 207
  • Sportsbook Pinnacle Sports
  • Line -105 / 1.95
  • Alternative Book Betonline
  • Line -110 / 1.91
  • Write up
    I took Dallas when they faced San Antonio on the first game of the season. Even though the Spurs won that game by one point and played an excellent second half, San Antonio also showed some weaknesses and that will be explored by Phoenix tonight. First of all, San Antonio is still a bit far from their peak level that they showed last season. They are missing Splitter and he's a key piece in patrolling the paint. Leonard is returning tonight, but he may also still be a bit off sync. Coming back to the Spurs' opening game, San Antonio struggled heavily when Dallas used a 3-guards lineup formed by Nelson, Harris and Monta. The speed of these three players crushed San Antonio's defense time and time again. The problem for the Spurs tonight is that Phoenix has Dragic, Bledsoe and Thomas to do the same thing to them in here.
     
    Another issue for the Spurs at the moment is that they are very turnover prone. They showed that in the preseason and then, they did the same thing on their opening game against Dallas with 21 turnovers that allowed Dallas to score 22 points off them. The problem for San Antonio is that commit turnovers is the kiss of death against this Suns team, who is one of the best teams in the league in scoring fast break points. They average 25.2 fast break points per game in their last five preseason games and then scored 19 fast break points against the Lakers. Of course the Spurs' defense just can't be compared with the Lakers' defense, but Phoenix will still be extremely dangerous tonight with their transition game.
     
    Without Splitter available, the Spurs will use a smaller lineup with Diaw playing heavy minutes, something excellent matchup-wise for Phoenix's smaller lineup. After a slow start, San Antonio showed how potent their lineup is during the second half against the Mavs with 56 points scored. I expect Phoenix to push the tempo in here, turning this game into a frenetic fast paced game. Both teams will score a lot, but Phoenix will have the right key edges tonight to beat the reigning champions tonight. Therefore, I'll take both the Suns and the Over in here.
  • Score 94-89 (183)
  • W/L LOSS
  • Profit -3.15

10/31 Tracking NBA Play #1

Additional Info

  • Date Friday, 31 October 2014
  • Sport NBA
  • Road Team San Antonio Spurs
  • Home Team Phoenix Suns
  • Rating 4* Regular Play
  • Selection Phoenix +1.5
  • Sportsbook Pinnacle Sports
  • Line -108 / 1.92
  • Alternative Book 5 Dimes
  • Line -110 / 1.91
  • Write up
    I took Dallas when they faced San Antonio on the first game of the season. Even though the Spurs won that game by one point and played an excellent second half, San Antonio also showed some weaknesses and that will be explored by Phoenix tonight. First of all, San Antonio is still a bit far from their peak level that they showed last season. They are missing Splitter and he's a key piece in patrolling the paint. Leonard is returning tonight, but he may also still be a bit off sync. Coming back to the Spurs' opening game, San Antonio struggled heavily when Dallas used a 3-guards lineup formed by Nelson, Harris and Monta. The speed of these three players crushed San Antonio's defense time and time again. The problem for the Spurs tonight is that Phoenix has Dragic, Bledsoe and Thomas to do the same thing to them in here.
     
    Another issue for the Spurs at the moment is that they are very turnover prone. They showed that in the preseason and then, they did the same thing on their opening game against Dallas with 21 turnovers that allowed Dallas to score 22 points off them. The problem for San Antonio is that commit turnovers is the kiss of death against this Suns team, who is one of the best teams in the league in scoring fast break points. They average 25.2 fast break points per game in their last five preseason games and then scored 19 fast break points against the Lakers. Of course the Spurs' defense just can't be compared with the Lakers' defense, but Phoenix will still be extremely dangerous tonight with their transition game.
     
    Without Splitter available, the Spurs will use a smaller lineup with Diaw playing heavy minutes, something excellent matchup-wise for Phoenix's smaller lineup. After a slow start, San Antonio showed how potent their lineup is during the second half against the Mavs with 56 points scored. I expect Phoenix to push the tempo in here, turning this game into a frenetic fast paced game. Both teams will score a lot, but Phoenix will have the right key edges tonight to beat the reigning champions tonight. Therefore, I'll take both the Suns and the Over in here.
  • Score 94-89
  • W/L WIN
  • Profit +3.00

10/30 Tracking NBA Play #4

Additional Info

  • Date Thursday, 30 October 2014
  • Sport NBA
  • Road Team Utah Jazz
  • Home Team Dallas Mavericks
  • Rating 4* Regular Play
  • Selection Over 201.5
  • Sportsbook Pinnacle Sports
  • Line -105 / 1.95
  • Alternative Book Betonline
  • Line -110 / 1.91
  • Write up
    (NOTE: Pinnacle has 201, but the official line for this pick is 201,5)
     
    Utah is coming from a home loss last night against Houston that showed some nice ball movement. Thanks to that, the Rockets had a bunch of open looks and ended up scoring a fair amount of points that gave them the win at the end. Dallas will also use their good ball movement to do the same thing tonight, with a similar result in results of offensive production.
     
    On the other hand, Utah's offense managed to create some nice shots last night. They scored well on the inside, but struggled on the outside with 3-18 3pts. Dallas's perimeter defense is quite poor, as the Spurs showed that last Tuesday, so I believe the Jazz will be able to expose Dallas' problems on the perimeter defense, as they regularly use a 3-guards lineup with Monta Ellis, Devin Harris and Jameer Nelson. Therefore, I believe that this will be a fairly high scoring affair and so, I'll take the Over in here.
  • Score 120-102 (222)
  • W/L WIN
  • Profit +3.00

10/30 Tracking NBA Play #3

Additional Info

  • Date Thursday, 30 October 2014
  • Sport NBA
  • Road Team Detroit Pistons
  • Home Team Minnesota Timberwolves
  • Rating 4* Regular Play
  • Selection Under 206
  • Sportsbook Pinnacle Sports
  • Line -104 / 1.96
  • Alternative Book 5 Dimes
  • Line -110 / 1.91
  • Write up
    It was clear last night at Denver that Detroit is completely favoring defense on their lineups over offense by putting Joel Anthony on the court during crunch time. In fact, we even had some possessions where Joel, Drummond and Smith played at the same time in the Pistons' frontcourt. On the other side, Detroit also showed some terrible perimeter shooting, something expected given Meeks's injury. Detroit is also missing the currently suspended Monroe to give them some scoring touch near the basket. On the other hand, Detroit's defense is almost at an elite level. Denver's offense is totally based in attacking the rim, but they just couldn't do it effectively last night against the Pistons. For tonight's back to back game at Minnesota, I don't expect any miracle from Detroit's offense, so it will be their defense that will make them competitive tonight.
     
    Minnesota is coming from a game last night at Memphis, where their interior defense was horrible. Gasol and Randolph combined 24-33 FG, while getting easy looks in a variety of ways (good post position, offensive rebounds, mid-range shots, etc.). However, Memphis with their good ball movement was the main responsible for these good looks. Now against the Pistons, things should be easier for the Wolves' interior defense, as Smith and Drummond aren't good shooters, especially in comparison with Gasol and Randolph. On the other hand, Minnesota is very turnover prone and this will be another problem on their offense tonight against a good Pistons defense. The Wolves also managed to have surprising good numbers from their outside shooting last night, but that's very unlikely to happen twice in two nights. I believe this totals line is too high for this match up and so, I'll take the Under in here.
  • Score 97-91 (188)
  • W/L WIN
  • Profit +3.00

10/30 Tracking NBA Play #2

Additional Info

  • Date Thursday, 30 October 2014
  • Sport NBA
  • Road Team New York Knicks
  • Home Team Cleveland Cavaliers
  • Rating 4* Regular Play
  • Selection Cleveland -12.5
  • Sportsbook Pinnacle Sports
  • Line -104 / 1.96
  • Alternative Book 5 Dimes
  • Line -110 / 1.91
  • Write up
    Chicago's second unit absolutely crushed the Knicks last night, with Brooks, McDermott and Gibson all ending with at least +16 on +/- team points! The Knicks were a total mess on offense with their "triangle". Of course they faced a top defensive team, but they have a lot to work on, as they get to the last seconds of possession without knowing what to do with the ball. The worst is that the Knicks' defense was supposed to be a bit better, but Chicago had almost 60% of their shots uncontested! If Dunleavy and Hinrich didn't have an off-day on their shooting, the Bulls would have shot near 60% FG!
     
    Now at Cleveland, on a back to back spot and still without Jose Calderon, the Knicks won't be facing Hinrich and Dunleavy this time around. They'll face Irving, Waiters and Lebron, so it's clear that Cleveland's offense will have a super edge, especially as they showed some great ball movement during the preseason. The area where I can see the Cavs struggling early in the season is on their interior defense, especially in stopping the opposing players from attacking the rim. However, that's something that the Knicks' offense doesn't even try to do, as they love to pull up from the perimeter and scored just 28 points in the paint last night against Chicago. I see Cleveland having a massive blowout win tonight and so, I'll take them in here.
  • Score 90-95
  • W/L LOSS
  • Profit -3.12

10/30 Tracking NBA Play #1

Additional Info

  • Date Thursday, 30 October 2014
  • Sport NBA
  • Road Team Washington Wizards
  • Home Team Orlando Magic
  • Rating 4* Regular Play
  • Selection Under 191
  • Sportsbook Bookmaker
  • Line -110 / 1.91
  • Alternative Book Bookmaker
  • Line -115 / 1.87
  • Write up
    The Wizards are coming from a loss last night at Miami, where they hung in there for three quarters, but then they just couldn't handle the Heat down the stretch. Now with Nene back tonight, Washington's interior defense will immediately improve and therefore, Orlando will struggle to get easy baskets in here. The Magic's overall offensive problems will also continue given their poor perimeter shooting. On their first game of the season at New Orleans, their starting SF+SG+PG's combined just 7 assists and 10 turnovers, in a clear sign of poor ball movement, a trend that should continue tonight.
     
    On the other hand, Washington's offense clearly showed against Miami that until Beal comes back, they will also struggle on their outside shooting. Washington creates good looks with Wall, but then they just can't score from the outside. Gooden had a great offensive game last night, but with Nene back and reclaiming the starting PF spot in the lineup, the Wizards will get more firepower near the basket. However, Orlando's defensive system is focused to protect the basket and that will "force" Washington to shoot from the outside. So, the matchup favors both defenses in here and this is why that I'll be taking the Under in here.
  • Score 98-105
  • W/L LOSS
  • Profit -3.30

10/29 Tracking NBA Play #7

Additional Info

  • Date Wednesday, 29 October 2014
  • Sport NBA
  • Road Team Golden State Warriors
  • Home Team Sacramento Kings
  • Rating 4* Regular Play
  • Selection Golden State -4.5
  • Sportsbook Pinnacle Sports
  • Line -104 / 1.96
  • Alternative Book 5 Dimes
  • Line -110 / 1.91
  • Write up
    Golden State is the perfect team to crush Sacramento. Therefore, it's so surprise that the Warriors won all four games that they played against the Kings last season. Golden State has Iguodala & Barnes to defend Gay and Bogut to defend Cousins, while on the other hand Collison and McLemore are lousy defenders, giving Thompson and Curry a lot of space that they normally take advantage to shoot treys after treys. 
     
    The Warriors looked good in the preseason and under Steve Kerr, they promise to be an improved team on offense, while maintaining their quality on defense. On the other hand, Sacramento will continue being a team with some individual quality, but lacking chemistry and a balanced rotation to hang with teams like the Warriors, especially when Golden State has the perfect matchup to stop them. I expect the Warriors getting another easy win over the Kings tonight and so, I'll take them in here.
  • Score 77-95
  • W/L WIN
  • Profit +3.00

10/29 Tracking NBA Play #6

Additional Info

  • Date Wednesday, 29 October 2014
  • Sport NBA
  • Road Team Detroit Pistons
  • Home Team Denver Nuggets
  • Rating 4* Regular Play
  • Selection Detroit +6.5
  • Sportsbook Pinnacle Sports
  • Line +100 / 2.00
  • Alternative Book 5 Dimes
  • Line -110 / 1.91
  • Write up
    Detroit will definitely be a better team this season than they were last season, even if it's because of their new coach Stan Van Gundy. He immediately refused to use Drummond, Monroe and Smith together in the frontcourt due to the awful floor spacing problems that they showed last season, but Van Gundy didn't even have a chance for tonight's game as Monroe is currently suspended. However, it's clear that the Pistons will be an improved defensive team, as shown during the preseason. Caldwell-Pope and Singler are smart players and they will help improve the perimeter defense, while Drummond will defend the paint.
     
    On the other hand, Denver has a tricky problems on their hands and that's too much depth. For example, Danilo Gallinari, Nate Robinson, JaVale McGee and J.J. Hickson should only average 20-25 minutes per game. Denver's super deep roster helps them in having good runs, but as they don't have defined rotations, they get lost mid-game quite easily. Ty Lawson is banged up and he is clearly the team's key. The Nuggets will continue struggling on outside shooting this season and so, they will continue to attack the rim as their sole mindset. However, Detroit's interior defense will be quite good this season and so, Denver's offense will have a tough matchup in here. I see this game being very close and so, I'll take the Pistons in here.

     

  • Score 89-79
  • W/L LOSS
  • Profit -3.00

10/29 Tracking NBA Play #5

Additional Info

  • Date Wednesday, 29 October 2014
  • Sport NBA
  • Road Team Brooklyn Nets
  • Home Team Boston Celtics
  • Rating 4* Regular Play
  • Selection Brooklyn +1
  • Sportsbook Pinnacle Sports
  • Line -105 / 1.95
  • Alternative Book Bookmaker
  • Line -110 / 1.91
  • Write up
    It's probable that Rajon Rondo will be back tonight, but looking at how he didn't play a single minute in the preseason, I expect Rondo to be rusty and lacking chemistry with some of his new teammates. I also expect Rondo to force a lot on offense, while he will struggle on defense, where Deron Williams looks set to take advantage of that. I also don't expect the Celtics' frontcourt to have any kind of edge on offense tonight and even though they continuously struggle on outside shooting, it seems like their new philosophy on offense is indeed attempt a bunch of outside shots and hope they land in.
     
    Brooklyn will be without Brook Lopez tonight, but they will have a lot more individual quality and also superior chemistry in comparison with the Celtics. Even though this game might be close, I still expect the Nets' experience and individual play to allow them to win this game over the inconsistent Celtics, where Rondo will still be too rusty to carry his team to a win tonight. Therefore, looking at the current lines, I'm taking Brooklyn in here.
  • Score 121-105
  • W/L LOSS
  • Profit -3.15

10/29 Tracking NBA Play #4

Additional Info

  • Date Wednesday, 29 October 2014
  • Sport NBA
  • Road Team Atlanta Hawks
  • Home Team Toronto Raptors
  • Rating 4* Regular Play
  • Selection Atlanta (+4.5)
  • Sportsbook Pinnacle Sports
  • Line -109 / 1.91
  • Alternative Book Betonline
  • Line -110 / 1.91
  • Write up
    I watched some games of Toronto during the preseason... Defensively, there isn't a lot to say. They looked good again like last season, but they also faced Sacramento, Boston, the NY Knicks and Oklahoma City (without Durant). An easy schedule, but no doubt that they will be competent on defense once again. The problems were on the other side of the court. The Raptors' offense continues to struggle, as they can't feed Valanciunas properly, while Lowry and DeRozan are holding the ball too much on their hands. So, it's no surprise that Toronto couldn't reach the 20 assists mark in any of their last five preseason games.
     
    Offense is an area where Atlanta won't struggle this season. On their last preseason game against the Spurs, the Hawks scored 117 points and they dished an average of 26.4 assists per game on their last five games!  The series between these two teams ended 2-2 last season, but in none of these games Horford was on court without Gay being there as well. Atlanta with Horford and Millsap on the court together will be a very tough match up with their mid-range shooting against Amir and Valanciunas, who will forced to leave their comfort zone to defend Atlanta's frontcourt tonight. I believe Toronto's edge on defense will be counter-balanced by Atlanta's edge on offense and so, I expect a very tight game in here. Therefore, I'll take the Hawks tonight.
  • Score 109-102
  • W/L LOSS
  • Profit -3.27

10/29 Tracking NBA Play #3

Additional Info

  • Date Wednesday, 29 October 2014
  • Sport NBA
  • Road Team Washington Wizards
  • Home Team Miami Heat
  • Rating 4* Regular Play
  • Selection Miami -3.5
  • Sportsbook Pinnacle Sports
  • Line -105 / 1.95
  • Alternative Book Betonline
  • Line -110 / 1.91
  • Write up
    Washington didn't impress me at all during the preseason. Their offense was too stagnant with zero flow and honestly that's quite normal, as Wall used to have Beal (injured), Ariza (now in Houston) and Webster on the corners and now, they aren't there. Therefore, the Wizards will need time to put their offense back into an acceptable level and most importantly, they need Beal to recover from injury, as he's their only excellent shooter. Things only got worse after their preseason brawl in the game against the Bulls, where Nene and Blair got suspended for tonight's game. Of course that now without two of their main frontcourt players, and also considering Miami's small ball mentality, Washington will be forced to play small tonight. In fact, even Paul Pierce said that he spent a lot of time playing at the PF position at practice to get ready for tonight's smaller than usual lineup.
     
    So, the question in here is to know if by playing small, aren't the Wizards falling into Miami's trap, a team that has been playing with stretch PF's for three seasons in a row, while Washington will just do it tonight out of pure necessity? Not just Nene and Blair are suspended, as Humphries is also playing limited with a hand injury. Washington will then use Temple at the SG position, a defensive specialist to guard Wade, but the problem is that Temple has zero offensive skills and this will allow the Heat's backcourt defense to put extra pressure on Wall tonight. Even though Lebron is gone, Miami is a very well coached, led by three very experienced players in their lineup: Bosh, Deng and Wade. The Heat will explore Washington's weaknesses well, especially in the Wizards' offense, allowing Miami to comfortably beat a Washington team that will be missing some key players due to injuries and suspensions. Therefore, I'm taking Miami tonight.
  • Score 107-95
  • W/L WIN
  • Profit +3.00

10/29 Tracking NBA Play #2

Additional Info

  • Date Wednesday, 29 October 2014
  • Sport NBA
  • Road Team Minnesota Timberwolves
  • Home Team Memphis Grizzlies
  • Rating 4* Regular Play
  • Selection Over 195
  • Sportsbook Bookmaker
  • Line -110 / 1.91
  • Alternative Book Bookmaker
  • Line -112 / 1.89
  • Write up
    We'll have in here a battle of styles with Minnesota trying to push up the pace to take advantage of their speed edge, while Memphis will try to slow it down. However, just like it happened early on last season, Memphis actually tried to push up the pace a bit more during the preseason, so this contest could be really played into Minnesota's style.
     
    Marc Gasol was fantastic in the preseason in a proactive point-center role and he's now commanding Memphis's offense. Minnesota's roster is too young and it'll need time to be a decent defensive team, so I expect the Grizzlies to pound them down low tonight, with Zach Randolph having a great matchup tonight against Thaddeus Young.
     
    However, on the other hand, Minnesota will also have some good offensive weapons especially when they push the tempo. Ricky Rubio is great at controlling the break, their second unit is totally offensive minded, which is very good for the chances of us having a high scoring game in here in case Memphis builds a big lead early in the game. With Minnesota also trying to take advantage of Memphis's overall lack of speed on their starting lineup, I see both teams having solid edges on offense tonight and so, I'll take the Over in here.
  • Score 105-101 (206)
  • W/L WIN
  • Profit +3.00

10/29 Tracking NBA Play #1

Additional Info

  • Date Wednesday, 29 October 2014
  • Sport NBA
  • Road Team Houston Rockets
  • Home Team Utah Jazz
  • Rating 4* Regular Play
  • Selection Over 200
  • Sportsbook Pinnacle Sports
  • Line -110 / 1.91
  • Alternative Book Betonline
  • Line -110 / 1.91
  • Write up
    I successfully took the Under in last night's game between Houston and the LA Lakers, but our play was in danger because Houston's offense had a good performance and that was a surprise for me, given their struggles during the preseason. Their ball movement was decent and even more important than that, their role players were involved in a systematical way: four of their starters scored double digits points, with the remaining one (Beverley) scoring 9 points. They didn't need Howard down low to score points and in fact, D12 only played 21 minutes and the Rockets still managed to create good shots without him.
     
    I really liked Utah during the preseason and they will surprise some people with their overall improved play. However, I don't think that they will be in position of limiting Houston's offense in here. The difference is that Utah's offense is a lot better than the Lakers' offense and they will cause problems to Houston's defense tonight. The Jazz impressed during the preseason with good ball movement with their three guards (Burke, Burks and Hayward) constantly attacking the basket. They will be ready to expose Harden's poor defense and unlike the Lakers last night, I expect Utah's offense to be decent tonight. I see this game being a high scoring affair and so, I'll take the Over in here.
  • Score 93-104 (197)
  • W/L LOSS
  • Profit -3.30

10/28 Tracking NBA Play #3

Additional Info

  • Date Tuesday, 28 October 2014
  • Sport NBA
  • Road Team Houston Rockets
  • Home Team Los Angeles Lakers
  • Rating 4* Regular Play
  • Selection Under 207
  • Sportsbook Pinnacle Sports
  • Line -107 / 1.93
  • Alternative Book 5 Dimes
  • Line -110 / 1.91
  • Write up
    Don't expect to watch a good offensive game in here. The Lakers showed in the preseason that they'll have one of the weirdest offenses in the league. They just refuse to attempt treys, with Kobe as usual attempting 20 FG per game. However, with Howard protecting the rim and the good defensive duo formed by Ariza and Beverley, the Lakers' offense will quickly get into trouble tonight. The most clear sign that the Lakers' offense is struggling is that they never managed to reach the century mark in all their preseason games, excluding a game against Phoenix that actually went to overtime (94-94 in regular time).
     
    I expect the Lakers' offense to struggle in here so much that if I had trust in the Rockets, I would take them tonight. But I don't. Houston had also a quite unimpressive preseason, with really poor ball movement. They are playing a lot for Howard these days, alternating that with Harden's usual "ISO plays". The result of that was the Rockets dishing just 19 and 12 assists in the two most "serious" preseason games that they played. With both offenses certainly struggling, now we need to think about the game pace for tonight. Well, the Lakers are now coached by Byron Scott, so you won't see the LA team playing at a supersonic pace this season, especially now that Steve Nash is gone. So, I believe that this will be a relatively low scoring affair and so, I'll take the Under in here.
  • Score 90-108 (198)
  • W/L WIN
  • Profit +3.00

10/28 Tracking NBA Play #2

Additional Info

  • Date Tuesday, 28 October 2014
  • Sport NBA
  • Road Team Orlando Magic
  • Home Team New Orleans Pelicans
  • Rating 4* Regular Play
  • Selection New Orleans -9.5
  • Sportsbook Pinnacle Sports
  • Line -103 / 1.97
  • Alternative Book 5 Dimes
  • Line -110 / 1.91
  • Write up
    This will be one of the few times where we will see the Pelicans having such a big spread this season. The reason for that is that their roster is far from being at an elite level, given how unbalanced it is. However, they have a brilliant matchup in here against Orlando. The Magic are currently struggling with injuries and this means that their projected starting lineup for tonight is formed by Vucecvic - O'Quinn - Harkless - Harris - Ridnour! With such lineup, their offensive focus will be all over Nikola Vucevic, but these are great news for New Orleans's defense, who will (once again) struggle in closing out the perimeter, but who will have a great rim defense with Omer Asik and Anthony Davis patrolling the paint.
     
    I expect the Magic to struggle this season on outside shooting and they've already shown that during the preseason by shooting 32.5% 3pts. With Orlando's offense being limited, I believe the Pelicans' offense will be sharp enough to make some damage on the other side of the court. Anthony Davis is a true superstar and close to unstoppable, especially when he will be guarded tonight by Kyle O'Quinn. With Victor Oladipo out by injury, Orlando will have to play without their best perimeter defender and with rookie Elfrid Peyton still learning the NBA basics, I believe the Pelicans' perimeter shooting to also have some edge in here. All signs point to a double digits win by New Orleans tonight and so, I'll take them in here.
  • Score 101-84
  • W/L WIN
  • Profit +3.00

10/28 Tracking NBA Play #1

Additional Info

  • Date Tuesday, 28 October 2014
  • Sport NBA
  • Road Team Dallas Mavericks
  • Home Team San Antonio Spurs
  • Rating 4* Regular Play
  • Selection Dallas +4.5
  • Sportsbook Pinnacle Sports
  • Line -105 / 1.95
  • Alternative Book 5 Dimes
  • Line -110 / 1.91
  • Write up
    After a brilliant season last year that culminated with another championship, the Spurs had a tough preseason with injuries and a troubling (and tiring) trip to Europe. Of course their system continues to be the same and it is well developed, however the machine won't be well oiled in their first games of the season, mostly due to Tiago Splitter's and Kawhi Leonard's injuries, besides Patty Mills being also out for a couple months as well.
     
    On the other side, Dallas is on the opposite side of the spectrum. Rick Carlisle is a brilliant coach and he will have this season a deep roster that will give him a lot of flexibility. Therefore, given Carlisle's coaching qualities, Dallas will have a great season unless injuries ruin their chances. They are already showing good chemistry and in the few games that Dallas used their projected starting lineup in the preseason (Chandler - Dirk - Parsons - Monta - Nelson), the Mavericks dominated Cleveland, Memphis and Orlando, with all the Mavs' starters ending those games with a great +/- team numbers when they were on the field.
     
    Unlike the Spurs, Dallas has no injury concerns at the moment and therefore, I believe that they are as good as San Antonio right now. With a revenge mindset, Dallas have an excellent spot to get some revenge over San Antonio and so, I'll take them in here.
  • Score 101-100
  • W/L WIN
  • Profit +3.00
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