NBA Pick #1: 509 Orlando Magic @ 510 Miami Heat
Rating: 2 Units – Regular Play
Pick: 510 Miami Heat (-2)
Price: -108 / 1.92 on Pinnacle
Write Up:
Yesterday I did a long write up detailing why I believe Miami will win their division. With both teams on their max strength for tonight, I believe Miami has good value with less than a full ball possession while playing at home.
The fight for the Southeast division title will be once again between Orlando and Miami with the Magic being considered by the books as the clear favorites. Orlando won the division last season with a 47-35 record vs Miami’s 46-36 record, so it was a close battle. The typical narrative about Miami is that they don’t care about the regular season, only with the playoffs, so we shouldn’t count on them being consistent during the regular season.
However, I believe that we have signs that this won’t be the case this season. After having eliminated Milwaukee two seasons ago as the #8 seed (even though Giannis was injured most of the series), the Heat had a similar storyline last season but they faced the #1 seed and eventual champions Celtics and had no chance. With Boston being projected to be the #1 seed once again in the East this season, I am sure no team will want to face them in the first round. During the offseason, Pat Riley gave us a strong hint that the Heat will be more serious regarding the regular season this time around:”For him to say that, I thought, ‘is that Jimmy trolling? Or is that Jimmy serious?’” Pat Riley said. “If you’re not on the court playing against Boston, or on the court playing against the New York Knicks, you should keep your mouth shut.”
During the preseason, Miami also didn’t give the usual rest to their starters that is common on NBA teams. In fact, Miami used their starting lineup (Rozier – Herro – Butler – Jovic – Adebayo) even in games played in consecutive days with all these players being on court for over 20 minutes in each game. This is a serious sign of commitment for them for this upcoming season. Having said that, this Heat team has solid depth, with multiple solutions for coach Erik Spoelstra to work with. Miami has been a top 10 defensive team in every single of the last nine NBA seasons, but they will need to improve offensively and I believe this will be able to do that as they are healthy and have better ball handlers.
So, with Miami improving, will Orlando also be able to improve that much to match the Heat? Well, their defense will certainly once again be one of the best, especially with KCP joining their roster, but the Magic made no moves during the offseason to improve their offense. Suggs, KCP, Cole Anthony and Gary Harris aren’t exactly great when it comes to shooting and playmaking ability, so Orlando will have to rely a lot on Banchero and Wagner to play at elite level and I don’t think they can be consistent enough to do that for 82 games. Therefore, I believe Miami has excellent value on both the Southeast division title and on the Over in their Regular Season Wins line.
NBA Pick #2: 513 Cleveland Cavaliers @ 514 Toronto Raptors
Rating: 2 Units – Regular Play
Pick: 513 Over 224
Price: -102 / 1.98 on Pinnacle
NBA Pick #3: 519 Memphis Grizzlies @ 520 Utah Jazz
Rating: 2 Units – Regular Play
Pick: 519 Over 228.5
Price: -110 / 1.91 on Circa Sports
Write Up:
The Grizzlies arrive to this new season with the goal of having a good season but with a renewed style, as they want to play as fast as they can:
Coach Jenkins admits that the emphasis on pace is asking a lot of his players. But then again, “speed’s the name of the game right now,” he said. “Obviously playing with Ja, you play super fast,” Aldama said. “Now that they’re emphasizing pace and we got Ja and we got Des (Bane), we’re going to have to move way faster. It’s going to take some adjustments.”
This particular matchup against the Jazz presents the scenario for a pure shootout as both teams will be focused to go out and score in transition as they have scoring guards that will attack the rim. While we can expect Utah to be a bad defensive team at protecting the paint as no NBA team allowed more points in the paint during the preseason than the Jazz, Memphis will also come to this game without Jaren Jackson Jr and Vince Williams, their two best defensive players. Therefore, Memphis will have to rely on a rookie Center to protect the paint and JJJ’s absence will be felt as he would be the player who would attempt to limit Utah’s star player, Lauri Markkanen.
NBA Pick #4: 511 Milwaukee Bucks @ 512 Philadelphia 76ers
Rating: 2 Units – Regular Play
Pick: 511 Milwaukee Bucks (-3.5)
Price: -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA Pick #5: 517 Chicago Bulls @ 518 New Orleans Pelicans
Rating: 2 Units – Regular Play
Pick: 517 Chicago Bulls (+5)
Price: -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA Pick #6: 521 Phoenix Suns @ 522 Los Angeles Clippers
Rating: 2 Units – Regular Play
Pick: 522 Under 225.5
Price: -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker