NBA Pick #1: 503 San Antonio Spurs @ 504 Dallas Mavericks
Rating: 4 Units – Regular Play
Pick: 504 Dallas Mavericks (-4)
Price: -102 / 1.98 on Pinnacle
Detailed Write Up:
My fair line for this contest is DAL-6, so I believe there is some value here.
Dallas is 8-2 L10 games and their coach has finally found a decent rotation with a starting lineup of Doncic – J Rich – Finney-Smith – Kleber – Porzingis, while coming off the bench Brunson – Hardaway Jr – Powell or Cauley-Stein has giving Dallas some solid contribution.
This is not the case of the Spurs who will have to establish a new rotation now that some of their players are back as Aldridge, White, Gay and Vassell are all available for tonight’s game.
Despite being shorthanded in the last games, the Spurs were still extremely competitive due to the production of some unexpected players like Lyles, Samanic and a bigger role for Poeltl. Now these players will get few minutes, and I’m not sure the team will get better, especially the minutes related to Aldridge.
Besides that, I think the Mavericks are a tough matchup for the Spurs in both ends:
Their offense does not rely in attacking the rim where the Spurs have been an elite unit; Dallas naturally will launch plenty of 3pts led by Luka Doncic, and the Spurs don’t have a strong perimeter defensive player that can stop him. In the last H2h, despite being severely shorthanded, Doncic completely dominated the game with 36 points, 9 rebounds and 11 assists.
On the other end, the Mavericks will use Josh Richardson and Finney-Smith vs. Demar DeRozan and their usual lack of rim protection won’t be exploited as the Spurs are a subpar team attacking the rim (ranked #24).