NBA Pick #1 & #2: 531 Milwaukee Bucks @ 532 Philadelphia 76ers
Rating: 4 Units – Regular Play
Pick: 531 Milwaukee Bucks (-5.5)
Price: -105 / 1.95 on Pinnacle
Rating: 4 Units – Regular Play
Pick: Under 235
Price: -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
Detailed Write Up:
I played the Under PHI/SAS as a top play a couple of days ago and the Sixers really didn’t give me any chance to win as they put up a 139.0 Off. Rtg. I thought the Spurs did a poor job covering the 76ers’ shooters (Green & Curry) but really, it was the size of Tobias Harris and Ben Simmons that created all the mismatches favoring the 76ers offense. The Spurs’ lack of size @ perimeter really hurt them. The same thing happened yesterday for the Knicks… Barrett, Bullock and Randle didn’t have the strength/speed to match Simmons/Harris and both enjoyed great efficient games in a defensive battle.
But now we have the Bucks who have plenty of size on the perimeter to match both 76ers players and make them work hard for easy shots. Yesterday’s game NYK/MIL was a physical battle with the Knicks looking to be the better team until the 4th quarter where the fatigue factor kicked in for the Knicks (especially for Randle) and they didn’t have juice to close the 76ers down the stretch.
Fatigue now could be an issue for PHI: they will play their 5th game in 7 days against the worst possible matchup right now. MIL is red hot right now w/ 9-1 in L10 games; they got Jrue Holiday back and he is playing well while Antetokounmpo is in MVP mode. In the previous H2H’s, Embiid was the 76ers defensive counter for Giannis but he is OUT, and I expect the Bucks to take advantage of that in both ends.
NBA Pick #3 & #4: 547 Charlotte Hornets @ 548 Denver Nuggets
Rating: 4 Units – Regular Play
Pick: 547 Charlotte Hornets (+6.5)
Price: -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Rating: 4 Units – Regular Play
Pick: Over 116.5 FIRST HALF
Price: -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Detailed Write Up:
Every CHA game after the All Star break went Under the total, but it wasn’t because suddenly the Hornets have improved defensively. In my opinion, they had some favorable defensive matchups:
DET: Awful offensive team;
TOR: Completely shorthanded team;
SAC: Abused them down low w/ 68 points in the paint but they couldn’t hit a perimeter shot (going 9-31 3pts)
Facing the Nuggets will be a different defensive challenge for the Hornets…. DEN is one of the best offensive teams in the league; they have a good inside-out game w/ Jokic exploiting every possible mismatch and they are hitting 41.5% 3pts in their 3 games after the ASB. I expect DEN to have a great offensive game today.
However, I also think that CHA has some nice offensive edges as well. In the last game vs. IND, the Nuggets needed a great run in the 4Q to finish off the Pacers. With Morris injured, DEN started again Millsap at PF and their lack of speed was well noticed by the Pacers: IND scored 31 fast break points! This Hornets team looks for any transition opportunity and they will explore relentlessly this DEN weakness. CHA is #2 ranked in transition vol% (just behind the Bucks), and I expect them to keep up the pace today.
Finally, Gary Harris and Morris are out for the Nuggets. DEN is a bit shorthanded @ guards, an area where the Hornets are loaded right now. I expect also some 2nd unit domination from the Hornets as well, and them to keep up with the Nuggets the entire game.
NBA Pick #5: 533 Brooklyn Nets @ 534 Indiana Pacers
Rating: 4 Units – Regular Play
Pick: Under 230
Price: -107 / 1.93 on Pinnacle
NBA Pick #6: 537 Sacramento Kings @ 538 Washington Wizards
Rating: 4 Units – Regular Play
Pick: Over 247
Price: -107 / 1.93 on Pinnacle
NBA Pick #7: 543 San Antonio Spurs @ 544 Chicago Bulls
Rating: 4 Units – Regular Play
Pick: Under 223.5
Price: -108 / 1.92 on Pinnacle