NBA Free Pick: 559 New Orleans Pelicans @ 560 Portland Trail Blazers
Rating: 4 Units – Regular Play
Pick: Over 239
Price: -105 / 1.95 on Pinnacle
Detailed Write Up:
This is a rematch game and the first H2H ended with 249 points with an incredible comeback from the Pelicans. My fair line for this contest is 245 points as I expect another shootout between these 2 teams.
The Blazers got CJ McCollum back from injury and even though his production was subpar at best (as expected), the Blazers played with a better offensive tempo: they scored 25 fast break points – their second-best mark of the season. In the previous 24 games, they had averaged only 8.7 FB/game! I expect a similar approach for the Blazers today as they will get even better with CJ getting more playing time. It wasn’t a surprise that POR went 18-43 3pts against a putrid NOP perimeter defense as 31 of those 43 3pts attempts were graded at least OPEN from NBA.com. This is an edge that will have once again today.
On the other end, POR is ranked #27 in allowing shots @ rim and it showed against the Pelicans offense: NOP scored 56 points in the paint with 43% of their shots being at the rim. POR tried zone defense, man to man defense and it didn’t work because they don’t have any strong physical defender to stop Zion Williamson and when your center is Kanter.
I expect this contest to have a great tempo with POR having a substantial edge from the Perimeter and the Pelicans having a considerable edge in the interior.