NBA FREE Pick: 525 Milwaukee Bucks @ 526 Los Angeles Lakers
Rating: 4 Units – Regular Play
Pick: Under 222.5

Price: -106 / 1.94 on Pinnacle
Write Up:

The Bucks are coming from a subpar defensive performance against the Clippers, a team that was playing without Paul George. Milwaukee couldn’t rebound and especially they couldn’t defend the 3pts line.

“Their effort on the offensive boards was a big factor,” Budenholzer said. “Inability to guard the 3-point line and inability to rebound, and I think a lot of that just comes from not doing a better job guarding individually, so I think it was just not a good enough effort for us defensively.”

They allowed LAC to hit 19-34 from behind the line, and this has been clearly their biggest problem on the defensive end. Check their L4 games opponents 3pts: 19-47; 22-47; 16-44; 19-34; They allowed 44.1% 3pts! The first 2 games were against the small ball Celtics team; the third game was vs. NYK but the Bucks didn’t have any of their best players available and the last game was against LAC = the best 3pts team in the league.

The good news for them is that they will now face the Lakers, a team that has a low 3pts/rate and is the #4 worst 3pts team in this 2H season. I expect a better defensive effort from them today as the Lakers are a perfect matchup for them.

On the other side, the Lakers will start Drummond at center. I expect their game plan going forward to be slowing down the pace and crushing their opponents on the glass, which bodes well for any Under. The Lakers defense has been elite and they are great in transition defense: a key area to limit the Bucks offense. I make this contest 218/220 points, so I’m taking the Under here.