The fight for the Southeast division title will be once again between Orlando and Miami with the Magic being considered by the books as the clear favorites. Orlando won the division last season with a 47-35 record vs Miami’s 46-36 record, so it was a close battle. The typical narrative about Miami is that they don’t care about the regular season, only with the playoffs, so we shouldn’t count on them being consistent during the regular season.
However, I believe that we have signs that this won’t be the case this season. After having eliminated Milwaukee two seasons ago as the #8 seed (even though Giannis was injured most of the series), the Heat had a similar storyline last season but they faced the #1 seed and eventual champions Celtics and had no chance. With Boston being projected to be the #1 seed once again in the East this season, I am sure no team will want to face them in the first round. During the offseason, Pat Riley gave us a strong hint that the Heat will be more serious regarding the regular season this time around:”For him to say that, I thought, ‘is that Jimmy trolling? Or is that Jimmy serious?'” Pat Riley said. “If you’re not on the court playing against Boston, or on the court playing against the New York Knicks, you should keep your mouth shut.”
During the preseason, Miami also didn’t give the usual rest to their starters that is common on NBA teams. In fact, Miami used their starting lineup (Rozier – Herro – Butler – Jovic – Adebayo) even in games played in consecutive days with all these players being on court for over 20 minutes in each game. This is a serious sign of commitment for them for this upcoming season. Having said that, this Heat team has solid depth, with multiple solutions for coach Erik Spoelstra to work with. Miami has been a top 10 defensive team in every single of the last nine NBA seasons, but they will need to improve offensively and I believe this will be able to do that as they are healthy and have better ball handlers.
So, with Miami improving, will Orlando also be able to improve that much to match the Heat? Well, their defense will certainly once again be one of the best, especially with KCP joining their roster, but the Magic made no moves during the offseason to improve their offense. Suggs, KCP, Cole Anthony and Gary Harris aren’t exactly great when it comes to shooting and playmaking ability, so Orlando will have to rely a lot on Banchero and Wagner to play at elite level and I don’t think they can be consistent enough to do that for 82 games. Therefore, I believe Miami has excellent value on both the Southeast division title and on the Over in their Regular Season Wins line.
Miami Heat to win Southeast Division @ +178 Pinnacle