NBA Pick #1: 573 Toronto Raptors @ 574 Dallas Mavericks
Rating: 2 Units – Regular Play
Pick: Over 110.5 First Half
Price: -110 / 1.91 on Circa Sports
NBA Pick #2: 575 Portland Trail Blazers @ 576 Sacramento Kings
Rating: 3 Units – *TOP PLAY*
Pick: Over 221
Price: -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
Write up:
The best offense in the league last season is coming from three consecutive bad offensive games where they scored 101, 89 and 97 points. DeAndre Fox being out is a big factor, but still Sacramento didn’t show their true identity in those games which is to play fast and free. Even JaVale McGee referred that:
How can the Kings do that? “Playing physical on offense. Playing physical on defense. We can’t be reactive,” McGee said. “Right now, we’re in reactive mode to where we’re letting them figure out what they’re going to do and then we react. We can’t play like that.”
I expect the Kings to come very aggressive to this game and to have their usual fast tempo. Note that they also faced a Rockets team that has an underrated defense, something that isn’t the case with the Blazers’ defense. Portland even without their rookie Scoot Henderson has continued to show a fast paced identity. They scored at least 13 fast break points in 4 of their last 5 games and in their last two games against Memphis, they missed a ton of quality shots: 16-53 wide open 3pts, just 30.2% 3pts with a huge 28% volume%.
In an almost run and gun scenario, I like the Over in here.
NBA Pick #3: 551 Washington Wizards @ 552 Charlotte Hornets
Rating: 2 Units – Regular Play
Pick:Under 239
Price: -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA Pick #4: 557 San Antonio Spurs @ 558 New York Knicks
Rating: 2 Units – Regular Play
Pick:557 San Antonio Spurs (+10)
Price: -115 / 1.87 on Bookmaker
NBA Pick #5: 555 Utah Jazz @ 556 Indiana Pacers
Rating: 2 Units – Regular Play
Pick:555 Utah Jazz (+6)
Price: -106 / 1.94 on Betonline
Write Up:
Utah is coming for this game from a pair of terrible losses against Minnesota and Chicago. Their 3-big lineup hasn’t been working on both ends of the floor and due to Kessler’s injury, Utah’s coach has decided to change the structure and play with one more guard. The Jazz have been a terrible team at taking care of the ball (I assume that the decision of playing with one more guard is to fix this issue) but the truth is that Indiana’s defense is a conservative unit that doesn’t try to create turnovers (#29 in TO/rate opp). Both Collins and Markkanen will also be a tough matchup for this Indiana team.
Utah’s defense has been terrible and if they had come to this game with their usual lineup, they would have serious problems in transition against this Indiana team. However, that won’t happen as I have said before. The Jazz has one of the worst FT/opp rates in the league but Indiana isn’t that aggressive. I expect a fired up Utah team tonight in a game against an Indiana team that has already shown this season that they aren’t very focused in games against lowly teams. They blew out the Spurs in their last game, but previously they had lost at home against Charlotte…