NBA Card:

NOTE: No more plays for today, back tomorrow

NBA Pick #1: 557 Minnesota Timberwolves @ 558 Phoenix Suns
Rating: 4 Units – Regular Play
Pick: Over 231.5
Price: -108 / 1.92 on Pinnacle
Detailed Write Up:

Against the best defensive team in the league, MIN scored 121 points and they kept creating good offensive shots despite not having great shooters. They have 122.1 avg Off Ratings in L4 games! They are simply getting to the rim @ insane rate:
My game logs in those 4 games:

At Rim
FG% vol%
62     48
66     51
84     41
70     50

They will now face the Suns defense that really is more focused to stop the opponents’ perimeter offense than to protect the paint. Actually, in PHX L2 games, the Suns allowed +60 points in the paint in both games.

Naturally, as good and better the Timberwolves offense looks like, their defense remains awful. The Suns offense is clicking right now with CP3 & Booker playing great and a fast tempo 2nd unit that has been killing their opponents. The suns have been comfortable playing in fast tempo games, so I expect them to keep up with MIN’s run and gun style.

NBA Pick #2: 559 New Orleans Pelicans @ 560 Portland Trail Blazers
Rating: 4 Units – Regular Play
Pick: Over 239
Price: -105 / 1.95 on Pinnacle
Detailed Write Up:

This is a rematch game and the first H2H ended with 249 points with an incredible comeback from the Pelicans. My fair line for this contest is 245 points as I expect another shootout between these 2 teams.

The Blazers got CJ McCollum back from injury and even though his production was subpar at best (as expected), the Blazers played with a better offensive tempo: they scored 25 fast break points – their second-best mark of the season. In the previous 24 games, they had averaged only 8.7 FB/game! I expect a similar approach for the Blazers today as they will get even better with CJ getting more playing time. It wasn’t a surprise that POR went 18-43 3pts against a putrid NOP perimeter defense as 31 of those 43 3pts attempts were graded at least OPEN from This is an edge that will have once again today.

On the other end, POR is ranked #27 in allowing shots @ rim and it showed against the Pelicans offense: NOP scored 56 points in the paint with 43% of their shots being at the rim. POR tried zone defense, man to man defense and it didn’t work because they don’t have any strong physical defender to stop Zion Williamson and when your center is Kanter. 

I expect this contest to have a great tempo with POR having a substantial edge from the Perimeter and the Pelicans having a considerable edge in the interior.

NBA Pick #3: 561 Charlotte Hornets @ 562 Los Angeles Lakers
Rating: 5 Units – ***TOP PLAY***
Pick: Over 114.5 FIRST HALF
Price: -108 / 1.92 on Pinnacle
Detailed Write Up:

I expected the Nuggets to have a good offensive game vs. bad CHA defense yesterday and they did not disappoint me: 127.2 Off. Rtg; 64 points in the paint w/ 83% FG @ rim; Jokic picked apart CHA’s lack of discipline for an easy triple double in just 29 minutes of action. On the other end, I expected the Hornets to have a good edge in transition and they exploited that by scoring 23 fast break points. The problem for the Hornets is that they just couldn’t hit their perimeter shots: 12-38 3pts in which they went 5-22 on WIDE OPEN 3PTS (22.7% mark).

For today, I expect the Lakers to have a similar offensive performance to the Nuggets had yesterday. Lebron James will pick apart CHA’s bad defensive positioning and the Lakers will put up great numbers at the paint and in transition. The Hornets will counter with their fast paced small ball lineups and I expect them to just have a slightly better perimeter shooting performance today. That will be enough for this game to go Over the posted total.

CBB Card:

CBB Pick #1: 711 Norfolk State @ 712 Appalachian State
Rating: 5 Units – ***TOP PLAY***
Pick: 712 Appalachian State (-3)

Price: -110 / 1.91 on William Hill