NBA FREE Pick: 571 San Antonio Spurs @ 572 Golden State Warriors
Rating: 2 Units – Regular Play
Pick: Over 235

Price: -110 / 1.91 on Circa Sports
Write Up:
San Antonio’s offense has been shaky lately but I believe San Antonio has a good matchup to be decent on offense tonight. In their last two games against the Clippers, the LA team refused to play small ball with the Spurs. This won’t happen again with the Warriors, as Golden State is a small team anyway and they will for sure have moments with Saric at the Center position. Draymond Green would be the X factor here, but he is still suspended. 

The Spurs’ big sized lineups are a problem on defense for them when they face heavy 3pts focused offenses. Their worst defensive performances always seem to happen when they allow big 3pts numbers to their opponents and so, they are the #4 worst defense at allowing wide open 3pts vol% with 24.7%. This will be a problem against a Warriors team that has an offense focused on attempting threes (#5 ranked vol% shots vs #30 vol% shots at the rim). 

Golden State has the incentive of trying to win by a lot of points so they get a nice point differential for the tournament, so they won’t stop even if they are winning big.