The Knicks were a big surprise in the 2020-21 season as they were #4 in the East with a 41-31 record. After that, expectations were high last year but things didn’t go well for them as they were just #11 in the East.
The team increased their options on offense, so a trade off between offense and defense was expected. The Knicks had been the #4 best defense in 2020-21 and they regressed into a respectable #12 last season. The problem was the offense didn’t improve and remained in the bottom 10. They were more aggressive at crashing the boards and going to the FT line (top 10 in both stats), but they shot poorly near the basket. The Knicks’ starting lineup was one of the most used lineups in the league but they were awful with -13.4 ppp. And yet Thibs refused to change it, while his bench units constantly fared better in the games.
2022/23 Outlook:
The PG has a key role in Thibs’ teams with Immanuel Quickley and Derrick Rose being two of their best players in on/off numbers last season. However, Rose played only 630 minutes. In the offseason, the Knicks signed Jalen Brunson to be their star PG. He had a good regular season in Dallas last year by averaging 16.3ppg while shooting 50.2% FG | 37.3% 3pts | 84.0% FT. However, it was in the playoffs where he became a key player in the team’s great run. Brunson shot great (both volume and PPP) at the rim even with his lack of size. However, Dallas used a spread offensive style that gave him the space to attack the basket. This will be tougher to happen in NY as their floor spacing is poor with Randle and Robinson in the frontcourt.
Besides Brunson, the Knicks didn’t make any other big moves. They eventually passed on trading for Mitchell and decided to bet on their own young players’ development. RJ Barrett upped his vol% on offense last season but his efficiency was terrible. However, with Brunson running the show, Barrett should have easier looks to convert this season. If the Knicks want to be in the playoff picture, they need a bounce back season from Julius Randle, who was a problem both inside and outside the court last year for the franchise.
Last season, Barrett and Randle combined 34 shot attempts per game with poor efficiency: 41% FG and low 30s on 3pts. This kind of math won’t work for them if it happens again this season…
However, if these two players improve their efficiency and given that Thibs’ teams usually produce solid defensive numbers, the Knicks should have a chance of grabbing one of the last playoff spots in the East.