Phoenix were the favorites to win the West going into the last season. They proved they deserved that status during the regular season, as they had the best record in the league with 64-18. They were also incredibly clutch as they finished 53-0 when leading after the 3Q and they also had the best record by a mile against vs .500 and above teams: 31-13! However, in the playoffs, the Suns were eliminated by the Mavs in a bizarre way as they were completely humiliated at home in G7 by being down 27-57 at half-time!
If we compare to the previous season where they got to the Finals, the Suns had a similar offensive profile: they took care of the ball (as CP3’s teams usually do), didn’t crash the boards and didn’t get a lot of free throws. However, there was a change in their shot profile that cost them the series against Dallas: while they increased in more than 5% their mid range volume, they decreased their 3pts volume. They went from being an average team in 3pts volume to being #25 in this area. In the last two games of the series against Dallas (both losses), the Mavs hit 17 more threes than the Suns. This is impossible to overcome in today’s NBA.
2022/23 Outlook:
Phoenix have virtually the same team they had the last two seasons. Cam Johnson will start replacing Jae Crowder (who might be traded soon), while the other starters remain the same: Chris Paul, Devin Booker, Mikal Bridges and DeAndre Ayton. Dario Saric returns after missing the whole last season due to injury while the team added Damion Lee and Josh Okogie in the offseason to give them extra depth in the rotation.
The X factor of the team this season will be DeAndre Ayton. Phoenix decided to match the offer that he got from Indiana and his role on offense needs to increase. Note that he had a sneaky underrated regular season last year with 17.2ppg while shooting 63.4% FG and 10.2 rebounds per game. However, he only attempted 12 shots per game vs 14.9 he had attempted in the previous season before CP3 got to the team.
When Dallas put extra focus in defending CP3 and Booker, Phoenix should have fed Ayton relentlessly at the post but that didn’t happen much. In the pivotal G7, Ayton played only 17 minutes, scoring just 5 points in a 2-5 FG effort. Phoenix will never win the title with Ayton having such a small impact in their game.
Phoenix will once again be a contender this season. They know how to execute down the stretch and that will grant them plenty of wins. They looked hungry last season after losing in the NBA Finals and they pushed to get the best record in the regular season. However, I do not think they will have the same sense of urgency during this year’s regular season…